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MODELLING OF PARK AND RIDE

PROGRAMME FOR PENANG BRIDGE EXPRESS SHUTTLE TRANSIT (BEST)

MUSTAQIN BIN ALPI

UNIVERSITI SAINS MALAYSIA

2017

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MODELLING OF PARK AND RIDE PROGRAMME FOR PENANG BRIDGE EXPRESS SHUTTLE TRANSIT (BEST)

by

MUSTAQIN BIN ALPI

Thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

Master of Science

December 2017

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Assalamualaikum w.b.t and Salam Sejahtera.

In The Name Of Allah The Most Gracious and The Most Merciful.

Alhamdulillah, I managed to complete my Master Degree thesis in Public Transport field entitled A MODELLING OF PARK AND RIDE PROGRAM FOR PENANG BRIDGE EXPRESS SHUTTLE TRANSIT (BEST).

Here, I like to take the opportunity to express my deep and sincere gratitude to my supervisor Associate Professor Ir. Dr. Leong Lee Vien for all the knowledge and also the assistance that was provided to finish this thesis. Millions of thanks also I would like to give to my co supervisors Professor Ahmad Farhan Mohd Sadullah and Professor Meor Othman Hamzah. With all their support and encouragement, I manage to finally complete this thesis.

Last but not least, to my lovely wife and my children, thank you very much for understanding and support to complete this report. Hope this thesis will help all the researchers to understand more about Park and Ride in Malaysia.

Thank You.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii

TABLE OF CONTENTS iii

LIST OF TABLES vii

LIST OF FIGURES ix

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS x

LIST OF SYMBOLS xii

ABSTRAK xiv

ABSTRACT xvi

CHAPTER ONE : INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background 1

1.2 Transportation in Pulau Pinang 1

1.3 Bridge Express Shuttle Services (BEST) 3

1.4 Public Transport Usage in Penang 4

1.4.1 Bus Service Capacity 4

1.4.2 Bus Service Reliability 5

1.4.3 Bus Service Comfort 6

1.4.4 Bus Information 7

1.4.5 Bus Stop Infrastructure 8

1.5 Road Safety Management in Pulau Pinang 9

1.6 Problem Statement 10

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1.7 Objectives 11

1.8 Scope of the Study 11

1.9 Organization of Thesis 11

CHAPTER TWO : LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction 13

2.2 Park and Ride 13

2.2.1 Travelling Cost 16

2.2.2 Travel Time 19

2.2.3 Pick - Up Point Facilities 22

2.3 Summary 25

CHAPTER THREE : METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction 26

3.2 Study Methodology 26

3.3 Data Collection 27

3.3.1 Questionnaire Survey 27

3.3.2 Secondary Data 28

3.4 Research Design 28

3.4.1 Types of Investigation 28

3.4.2 Unit of Analysis 28

3.4.3 Time Horizon 29

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3.5 Research Instrument 29

3.5.1 Questionnaire Design Survey 29

3.5.2 Statistical Method 29

3.6 Data Analysis and Treatment 29

3.6.1 Reliability of Measures: Cronbach`s Alpha 30

3.6.2 Descriptive Statistics 30

3.6.3 One – Way ANOVA 30

3.6.4 Principal Component Analysis 31

3.6.5 Multiple Linear Regression Models (MLR) 31

3.6.6 Dummy Variable 31

3.6.7 Performance Indicators of the model 32

3.7 Summary 32

CHAPTER FOUR : RESULT AND DISCUSSION

4.1 Introduction 34

4.2 Analysis on Questionnaire Data 34

4.2.1 Demographic of Current Users 34

4.2.2 PCA (Principle Component Analysis) 39

4.2.3 Ranking Analysis 42

4.3 Current Performance and Ridership Pattern 44

4.3.1 Overall Ridership Performance 44

4.3.2 Average Monthly Ridership According to the Route A, B, and C for

Departure and Return 47

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4.3.3 Descriptive Analysis Based on Average Monthly Ridership 52 4.3.4 One – Way ANOVA Test for Routes A, B and C 53 4.3.5 One – Way ANOVA Test for Daily BEST FTZ Performance 55

4.3.6 BEST FTZ Model 56

4.3.7 Performance Indicators (PI) 72

CHAPTER FIVE : CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1 Conclusions 74

5.2 Recommendations 75

REFERENCES 77

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A : Questionnaire Survey Form

APPENDIX B : Overall Ridership (Mac-December 2011)

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LIST OF TABLES

Page

Table 2.1: Influencing factors 15

Table 4.1: KMO and Bartlett's Test 40

Table 4.2: PCA result 41

Table 4.3: PCA Grouping 42

Table 4.4: Descriptive Statistics for the factor using the BEST service 43 Table 4.5: Descriptive Analysis on Average Monthly Ridership according to Route

and Trip 53

Table 4.6: ANOVA Test for Route A, B and C 54

Table 4.7: Duncan Test for the average ridership each route 54

Table 4.8: Anova Test for Daily ridership 55

Table 4.9: Duncan Test result 56

Table 4.10: Model summary for departure of all routes using five variables 58 Table 4.11: ANOVA result for departure of all routes using five variables 58 Table 4.12: Prediction model for departure of all routes using five variables 59 Table 4.13: Model summary for return of all routes using five variables 60 Table 4.14: ANOVA result for return of all routes using five variables 61 Table 4.15: Prediction model for return of all routes using five variables 61 Table 4.16: Model summary for departure of all routes using four variables 63 Table 4.17: ANOVA result for departure of all routes using four variables 63 Table 4.18: Prediction model for departure of all routes using four variables 63 Table 4.19: Model summary for return of all routes using four variables 65 Table 4.20: ANOVA result for return of all routes using four variables 65 Table 4.21: Prediction model for return of all routes using four variables 66

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Table 4.22: Model summary for departure 69

Table 4.23: ANOVA result for departure 69

Table 4.24: Prediction model for departure 69

Table 4.25: Model summary for return 70

Table 4.26: ANOVA result for return 71

Table 4.27: Prediction model for return 71

Table 4.28: PI for departure and return 73

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LIST OF FIGURES

Page

Figure 1.1: BEST FTZ Route A 3

Figure 1.2: BEST FTZ Route B 4

Figure 1.3: BEST FTZ Route C 4

Figure 2.1: Concept of Park and Ride 16

Figure 2.2: Possible journey for Park and Ride users 20

Figure 3.1: Flow chart of study 27

Figure 3.2: Procedure for development of MLR 31

Figure 4.1: BEST FTZ users by gender 35

Figure 4.2: BEST FTZ users according to age group 36

Figure 4.3: BEST FTZ users based on income group 37

Figure 4.4: BEST FTZ users according to race 38

Figure 4.5: BEST FTZ users based on frequency 39

Figure 4.6: Overall ridership according to route 45

Figure 4.7: Overall ridership for Route A, B and C 45 Figure 4.8: Ridership for the months of March until December 2011 46 Figure 4.9: Ridership for departure Route A (Mac – Dec 2011) 47 Figure 4.10: Ridership for return Route A (Mac – Dec 2011) 48 Figure 4.11: Ridership for departure Route B (Mac – Dec 2011) 49 Figure 4.12: Ridership for return Route B (Mac – Dec 2011) 50 Figure 4.13: Ridership for departure Route C (Mac – Dec 2011) 51 Figure 4.14: Ridership for return Route C (Mac – Dec 2011) 52

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ANOVA Analysis of variance

BEST Bridge Express Shuttle Transit

CCTV Close Circuit Television

FTZ Free Trade Zone

HOV High Occupancy Vehicle

IA Index of Agreement

KMO Kaiser Meyer Olkin Measure

LRT Light Railway Transit

MIROS Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research

MLR Multiple Linear Regression Model

MBPP Majlis Bandaraya Pulau Pinang (City Council of Penang Island)

MPSP Majlis Perbandaran Seberang Perai (Municipal Council of Seberang Perai)

NAE Normalised Absolute Error

O-D Origin – Destination

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xi PA Prediction Accuracy

PCA Principal Component Analysis

PI Performance Indicator

R2 Coefficient of Determination

RMSE Root Mean Square Error

SPSS Statistical Package for the Social Science

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LIST OF SYMBOLS

µ₁ Ridership route A

µ₂ Ridership route B

µ₃ Ridership route C

µᵢ Mean of route ridership

H₁ Alternate hypothesis

Hᴏ Null hypothesis β 1,β 2, β 3,β4 Coefficients

Dt1 Travel time - 5.30 am – 6.30 am

Dt2 Travel time - 6.30 am – 7.30 am

Dt3 Travel time - 7.30 am – 8.30 am

Dt1 Travel time - 4.30 pm – 5.30 pm

Dt2 Travel time - 5.30 pm – 6.30 pm

Dt3 Travel time - 6.30 pm – 7.30 pm

Dd1 Travel day (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday)

Dd0 Travel day (Friday)

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xiii βd Constant (Departure)

βr Constant (Return)

Dr1 Route A

Dr2 Route B

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PEMBANGUNAN MODEL PARK AND RIDE BAGI PROGRAM PENANG BRIDGE EXPRESS SHUTTLE TRANSIT (BEST)

ABSTRAK

Pada masa kini, kebanyakan bandar-bandar besar di Malaysia berhadapan dengan masalah kesesakan lalu lintas terutamanya pada waktu-waktu puncak. Pertambahan bilangan kenderaan di jalan raya di Malaysia menjadikan masalah ini semakin besar.

Oleh kerana kapasiti jalan raya yang sedia ada tidak dapat menampung beban kapasiti kenderaan, keadaan traffik menjadi lebih teruk. Sebagai contoh, pengguna jalan raya perlu mengambil masa yang lama dalam perjalanan setiap hari dan ini adalah perkara yang menyebabkan produktiviti dan kualiti hidup terjejas. Oleh itu, penggunaan pengangkutan awam adalah sangat penting bagi mengatasi masalah ini.

Walaubagaimanapun, sistem pengangkutan awam terlebih dahulu perlu dilengkapkan, dinaiktaraf dan berkesan supaya dapat menarik pengguna yang ramai.

Penggunaan konsep Park and Ride masih belum meluas dipraktikkan di Malaysia.

Kebanyakan penggunaan sistem Park and Ride ini adalah melibatkan sistem Rel.

Kerajaan Negeri Pulau Pinang telah bekerjasama dengan Rapid Penang bagi memperkenalkan konsep bas baru untuk program Park and Ride yang digunakan khas untuk pekerja-pekerja kilang di kawasan Free Trade Zone (FTZ) di Bayan Lepas. Tujuannya adalah untuk mengurangkan tahap kesesakan lalu lintas terutama di Jambatan Pulau Pinang, mengurangkan bilangan kenderaan persendirian yang memasuki Pulau Pinang dan juga menggalakkan penggunaan pengangkutan awam di Pulau Pinang. Perkhidmatan ini dibiayai sepenuhnya oleh Kerajaan Negeri Pulau Pinang dan telah dilaksanakan sejak Mac 2011. Kajian ini dijalankan untuk melihat

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prestasi program Penang Bridge Express Shuttle Transit (BEST) sedia ada dan juga membangunkan model penggunaan sistem Park and Ride.

Hasil kajian menunjukkan program BEST FTZ ini telah berjaya. Secara keseluruhannya program ini mencapai 60%-70% penggunaan daripada sasaran Kerajaan Negeri iaitu seramai 1000 pengguna sehari. Kajian ini menunjukkan terdapat tiga faktor utama yang mempengaruhi penggunaan program BEST FTZ ini, iaitu masa perjalanan dan kos pengangkutan, lokasi perhentian bas dan infrastruktur yang menyokong sistem pengangkutan awam. Akhir sekali, hasil daripada kajian ini satu model yang boleh digunakan untuk membuat anggaran penumpang bagi penggunaan program BEST FTZ di masa hadapan telah dibangunkan. Namun begitu, berdasarkan prestasi sedia ada, terdapat ruang dan peluang bagi menambahbaik perkhidmatan ini disamping mendapat input terus daripada pengguna dalam mengetahui masalah dan cabaran sebenar dilapangan. Dalam masa yang sama, Kerajaan Negeri Pulau Pinang juga ingin mencari formula yang terbaik untuk mengekalkan dan meningkatkan tahap penggunaan perkhidmatan ini.

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MODELLING OF PARK AND RIDE PROGRAMME FOR PENANG BRIDGE EXPRESS SHUTTLE TRANSIT (BEST)

ABSTRACT

Currently, most big cities in Malaysia are confronted with traffic congestion, especially during the morning and evening peak hours. This may be attributed to the nation’s rapid growth in vehicle population. As the existing road capacity is unable to accommodate the vehicle capacity, the traffic situation is getting worse. Drivers have to face longer travel times on a daily basis, and this adversely affects productivity, and quality of life. The role of public transport is very essential in solving this problem. However, the public transport system must be in place and it has to be efficient to attract the public. In Malaysia, the Park and Ride concept is quite new. Currently, the Park and Ride system is mainly applied to rail based public transport. The Penang State Government is collaborating with Rapid Penang for a new bus service concept with the Park and Ride program especially for factory workers in the Free Trade Zone (FTZ) area in Bayan Lepas. The purpose of this program is to reduce the severity of traffic jams especially on the First Penang Bridge to reduce the number of private vehicles entering Penang and also to promote the usage of public transport in Penang. This service is fully subsidized by the Penang State Government and has been operating since March 2011. This study was conducted to see the performance of the existing Penang Bridge Express Shuttle Transit (BEST) program and also to develop the Park and Ride model.

The results show that the BEST FTZ program has been successful, as a whole, reaching 60%-70% of Penang State’s target of 1,000 users per day. The study also shows that there are three main factors affecting the use of this BEST FTZ program,

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namely; travel time and transportation cost, bus stop location and infrastructure supporting the public transport system. Finally, as a result of this study, models that can be used to estimate the future usage of BEST FTZ program were developed.

However, based on existing performance, there is room for improving this service as well as getting direct input from users in real-time problems and challenges. At the same time, the Penang State Government is looking for the best formula to maintain and improve the level of use of this service.

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CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

According to the Penang Transport Master Plan (PTMP) (2013), the usage of public transport in Penang was 11% of the total vehicle registered in 2012. The mode of public transport includes public buses, school buses and factory buses. The State Government of Penang aims to achieve 40% of mode share using public transport in Penang by year 2030 (PTMP, 2013). Therefore, to achieve this aim, many programs and initiatives were made to promote and support the usage of public transport including the Penang Bridge Express Shuttle Transit (BEST) in the Free Trade Zone (FTZ) area. This program is expected to reduce the level of traffic congestion on the First Penang Bridge in addition to encourage Penangites to use public transport.

1.2 Transportation in Pulau Pinang

Rapid Penang Sdn. Bhd. is a government owned company set up to operate PUBLIC bus services in Penang and has begun operations since 31st July 2007. Rapid Penang Sdn. Bhd. is the second public transport operating company set up by the Malaysian government. The first was RapidKL, which was set up in year 2004 to take over light rail transit operations and a large portion of the bus network in Kuala Lumpur. Rapid Penang was funded by the Ministry of Finance Incorporated and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Syarikat Prasarana Negara Berhad. Like Rapid KL, the assets to be operated by Rapid Penang belong to Syarikat Prasarana Negara Berhad.

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According to Rapid Penang Official Website (2013), Rapid Penang now operates 350 buses with 47 routes including the Park and Ride services. All buses are built with low flooring to be friendly for the elderly and the disabled customers. Rapid Penang services does not only focus on profitable routes but also provide services in rural areas, where they are known as “social routes” because such routes are not profitable in view of the number of ridership and operation cost.

Rapid Penang is the only stage bus operator in Penang Island, while for mainland, there are few bus operators still competing with Rapid Penang such as City Liner and Rangkaian Setia.

However, Rapid Penang is the first stage bus operator in Malaysia that provides call centres where passengers can call to request for bus availability and expected time of arrival. All buses are equipped with GPS where it can be monitored from the control centre. This service shows improvement on stage bus operation and service to reduce passenger’s uncertainty and lure the public to use the public transport service.

City Liner mainly serves the mainland area and it is the subsidiary of Konsortium Transnasional Berhad (KTB). From the KTB official website (2013), the company has 32 buses plying over the main stream and also social routes. However, currently, these services are not much profitable and sometimes the Penang State Government has to subsidise City Liner to give the services to Penang citizens. Their main profit comes from the express buses that ply from Penang to other states in Malaysia. The services given by City Liner normally were different routes from the Rapid Penang

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and will give a good business for them but they will have to compete with other operators in order to get passengers if they are plying on the same route. It’s not a very healthy competition because the usage of public transport especially in the Seberang Perai area is low compared to Penang Island.

1.3 Bridge Express Shuttle Services (BEST)

This program was initiated by the Penang Transport Council back in 2010. The Penang Chief Minister fully supported the program and it was launched officially on 1st March 2011. The main purpose of the program is to reduce traffic jams on Penang Island and also reduce the number of vehicles using the Penang Bridge during peak hour especially in the morning. The operational cost for this service was subsidized by the Penang State Government. The BEST services started with 16 buses plying from Sunway Carnival to the FTZ, Bayan Lepas area. In the FTZ area, BEST operates on 3 major routes, namely; BEST A, BEST B and BEST C. Each route will ply with its own dedicated route to cover almost all of the FTZ area as shown in Figures 1.1 to 1.3 for Routes A, B and C respectively.

Figure 1.1: BEST FTZ Route A

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Figure 1.2: BEST FTZ Route B

Figure 1.3: BEST FTZ Route C

1.4 Public Transport Usage in Penang

1.4.1 Bus Service Capacity

In Penang, local bus services are operating at or near to their maximum capacity for many parts of the day, on at least six days per week. This can be seen in the high proportion of services that carry standing passengers up to the legal maximum for

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vehicles, and in many cases exceed the maximum. This is particularly true on more popular routes such as 101, 104 and 801.

The problem is at its worst at peak periods when, as a result of high levels of traffic congestion, bus operators are unable to maintain their normal frequencies. As a result, services level is reduced. Thus, at this point in time the bus service network has little or no space in capacity terms to act as an instrument of public transport policy unless ways can be found to increase its capacity especially by adding more buses for popular routes during the peak hours.

Also, this problem is at its worst for movements to and/or from Georgetown and to overcome this problem, Rapid Penang has provided some routes that depart or terminate in other urban areas in Penang. However, on the mainland, problems of service capacity appear to be less significant, although many journeys have been observed to carry passenger loads at capacity, notably to or from the ferry terminal during the morning and evening peak periods. There are also a large number of individual bus services operating in the Butterworth, Perai and Bukit Mertajam areas.

Many of these are at relatively low frequencies, in part a reflection of the more dispersed, lower density development on the mainland.

1.4.2 Bus Service Reliability

Service reliability is essential if bus services are to be promoted as a viable and attractive alternative to the private car. The actual and perceived reliability are affected by several factors.

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Traffic delays are the major source of unreliability, as described above, resulting in a decrease in service frequency at the periods of highest demand as buses take up 50%

longer to complete a journey. In addition, as mentioned in the Penang Transport Master Plan (2013), bus operators have also reported that significant amount of mileage are lost as a result of staff shortage or staff absenteeism especially the bus captain.

The operators blame staff shortages on their inability to maintain a full schedule.

They cite delays in recruiting new drivers due to administrative delays in the driver’s test, and the difficulties in retaining drivers once trained. Absenteeism is also a major and unpredictable cause of services unreliability, and two operators blame labour laws, which they claim are too heavily biased in favour of the employee, notably in terms of the various appeals procedures available against dismissal.

1.4.3 Bus Service Comfort

The perceived and real difficulties with passengers and driver comfort are likely to have a major bearing on the attitude of existing and potential passengers to using buses. If these issues are not seriously addressed by operators and authorities, the bus will become the “mode of last resort”, used mainly by those too young to drive, the elderly and also tourists.

Buses are perceived as dirty, hot, fume laden and uncomfortable. This is observed to be true for a large part of the local fleet. Until relatively recently, most service buses were built on commercial truck chassis or derivatives, resulting in vehicles with very high floors, a poor ride quality and high internal noise levels. These comments apply

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