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v
GERIA’S DECLINING INFLUENCE AS A REGIONAL HEGEMON IN WEST AFRICA: CAUSES AND TMPLICATIONS, 1994-2015
SULE, SAI AHMAD
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITI UTARA MALAYSIA
2018
i
NIGERIA’S DECLINING INFLUENCE AS A REGIONAL HEGEMON IN WEST AFRICA: CAUSES AND IMPLICATION
SBy
SULE, SANI AHMAD
Ghazzalie Shafie Graduate School of Government
College of Law, Government and International Studies (COLGIS) Universiti Utara, Malaysia
in
Fulfilment of the Requirement for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy
iii
PERMISSION TO USE
In presenting this thesis in fulfillment of the requirement for PhD degree from Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM), I agree that the university Library may make it freely available for inspection.
I further agree that permission for copying of this project paper in any manner, in whole or in part, for scholarly purpose may be granted by my supervisor(s) or in their absence by the Dean Ghazali Shafie Graduate School of Government, College of Law, Government and International Studies. It is understood that any copying or publication or use of this thesis or parts therefore for periodical gain shall not be allowed without any permission. It is also understood that due recognition shall be given to me and to UUM for any scholarly use which may be made of any material from my thesis.
Request for permission to copy or make other use of materials in this thesis in whole or in part, should be addressed to:
Dean Ghazali Shafie Graduate School of Government UUM College of Law, Government and International Studies
Universisti Utara Malaysia 06010 UUM Sintok
iv ABSTRACT
Nigeria’s strategic position in the West African sub-region has earned her the status of a regional Hegemony since her independence in 1960 up to 1994. The country has contributed immensely toward maintaining peace and stability in the region as well as assisting the ECOWAS member countries in their respective economic development efforts. However, from 1994 to 2015, Nigeria’s Hegemonic power status began a steady decline owing to internal and external factors.
The study attempted to investigate the causes of the country’s Hegemonic decline as well as the implications of the decline on the region using qualitative method of data collection and content analysis through interviews and documentary analysis. The long cycle theory of George Modelski is used as a theoretical framework to shape the understanding of Hegemonic Stability Theory (HST). However, the study employed the three levels of analysis of Kenneth N. Waltz as an analytical framework to explain the causes of the decline. These levels are the systems level, the domestic level, and the personality level. Findings of the study reveals that internal factors such as lack of effective governance, lack of unity, rising poverty level, endemic corruption, and collapse of internal security are the major internal factors responsible for the country’s Hegemonic power decline in West Africa. Similarly, external factors such as the waning of Nigeria’s leadership role in the region and the entire African continent, France’s continuous intervention in the regional affairs of West Africa, and the deterioration of Nigeria’s relations with her traditional super power allies, the United States and Britain, combine to erode her Hegemonic power status in West Africa. The personality and leadership styles of individual leaders of the country from 1994 to 2015 also contributed immensely toward the country’s power decline. This study concluded that Nigeria needs to take serious measures against these factors in order to reverse the decline in her Hegemonic status in West Africa. Similarly, the country needs to establish a stable and cordial relationship with France being the major challenger of her Hegemonic power in the region. Future research can investigate Nigeria’s Hegemonic power decline in West Africa beyond 2015 since the decline still persists beyond the scope of this study.
Keywords: Hegemonic Stability Theory (HST), Hegemonic Power, Levels of Analysis, Decline, Nigeria, West Africa
v ABSTRAK
Kedudukan strategik Nigeria di sub-rantau Afrika Barat telah memperolehi status Hegemoni serantau semenjak kemerdekaannya pada tahun 1960 hingga 1994.
Negara ini telah memberi sumbangan besar dalam menjaga keamanan dan kestabilan di rantau serta membantu negara anggota ECOWAS dalam usaha pembangunan ekonomi masing-masing. Walau bagaimanapun, dari tahun 1994 hingga 2015, status kuasa Hegemoni Nigeria mula merosot secara berterusan disebabkan oleh faktor dalaman dan luaran. Kajian ini cuba menyelidik penyebab kemerosotan Hegemoni negara ini serta implikasi kemerosotan tersebut di rantau ini menggunakan kaedah pengumpulan data kualitatif dan analisis kandungan melalui temubual dan analisis dokumentari. Teori kitaran panjang oleh George Modelski digunakan sebagai kerangka teori untuk membentuk pemahaman tentang Teori Kestabilan Hegemoni (HST). Walau bagaimanapun, kajian ini menggunakan tiga aras analisis oleh Kenneth N. Waltz sebagai kerangka analitikal untuk menjelaskan sebab-sebab kemerosotan tersebut. Aras-aras ini adalah aras sistem, aras domestik, dan aras personaliti. Penemuan kajian mendedahkan bahawa faktor dalaman seperti kekurangan tadbir urus yang berkesan, kekurangan perpaduan, peningkatan tahap kemiskinan, rasuah endemik, dan keselamatan dalaman yang terjejas adalah faktor- faktor utama dalaman yang bertanggungjawab terhadap kemerosotan kuasa Hegemoni negara ini di Afrika Barat. Secara yang serupa, faktor luaran seperti pengurangan peranan kepimpinan Nigeria di rantau ini dan seluruh benua Afrika, campur tangan Perancis secara berterusan dalam hal ehwal serantau di Afrika Barat, dan kemerosotan hubungan Nigeria dengan kuasa besar bersekutu tradisional Nigeria, Amerika Syarikat dan Britain, bergabung untuk menghakis status kuasa Hegemoninya di Afrika Barat. Gaya keperibadian dan kepimpinan individu pemimpin negara dari tahun 1994 hingga 2015 juga banyak menyumbang kepada kemerosotan kuasa negara tersebut. Kajian ini membuat kesimpulan bahawa Nigeria perlu mengambil langkah serius untuk menangani faktor-faktor ini untuk menterbalikkan penurunan status Hegemoninya di Afrika Barat. Begitu juga, negara ini perlu mewujudkan hubungan yang stabil dan mesra dengan Perancis sebagai pencabar utama kuasa Hegemoninya di rantau ini. Penyelidikan masa depan boleh meneliti kemerosotan kuasa Hegemoni Nigeria di Afrika Barat selepas tahun 2015 kerana penurunan ini masih berterusan di luar skop kajian ini.
Kata kunci: Teori Kestabilan Hegemoni, Kuasa Hegemoni, Aras Analisis, Kemerosotan, Nigeria, Afrika Barat
vi
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
My sincere thanks and gratitude goes to Almighty Allah for giving me the courage, fortitude, foresight and of course long live to be able to undertake this programme.
My gratitude goes also to my supervisors, Professor Emeritus Dr. Ranjit Singh Darshan a/l Darshan Singh for his tireless intellectual contributions throughout my study; and Professor Dr. Mohammad Azizuddin Mohammad Sani for his patience, constructive criticism and friendly attitudes during my study. I’m grateful to my late parents Alhaji Sule Ahmad and Hajiya Hauwa Sule for raising me to maturity and giving me all the moral and financial supports in life. May Allah reward them with Jannatul Firdaus. I’m also grateful to my Brothers Alhaji Abubakar Sule and Alhaji Sabi’u Sule for their assistance and advice during my study. I’m indebted to my wife Hajiya Sakina Tijjani for standing by me and shouldering all the responsibilities of my family during my stay in Malaysia. Space could not allow me mention every one that contribute to my success, I therefore, extend my profound gratitude to all my family members, friends and colleagues whose name I could not mention for their moral and financial support during my study. I wish all of them Allah’s blessings.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title page ... Error! Bookmark not defined.
Certification ... ii
Permission to Use ... iii
ABSTRACT ... iv
ABSTRAK ... v
Acknowledgements ... vi
Table of Contents ... vii
List of Tables ... xii
List of Abbreviations ... xiii
CHAPTER ONE RESEARCH OVERVIEW ... 1
1.1 Introduction ... 1
1.1.1 Evidence of Nigeria’s Decline ... 12
1.1.2 Application of the Levels of Analysis as a Structure for Explanation ... 14
1.2 Statement of the Research Problem ... 16
1.3 Research Questions ... 18
1.4 Research Objectives ... 18
1.5 Scope of the Study ... 19
1.6 Significance of the Study ... 21
1.7 Research Method ... 22
1.7.1 Sampling Technique ... 26
1.7.2 Ethical Considerations ... 26
1.8 Operational Definitions of Key Concepts ... 27
1.8.3 Regional Hegemon: ... 28
1.8.1 Hegemony: ... 28
1.8.2 Global Hegemon: ... 28
viii
1.8.4 West African sub-region: ... 28
1.9 Chapterisation ... 28
CHAPTER TWO THEORIES OF HEGEMONIC STABILITY ... 32
2.1 Introduction ... 32
2.2 The Hegemonic Stability Theory and Related Theories ... 32
2.3 Critique of the Realist Theory ... 40
2.4 Attributes of a Global Hegemon ... 42
2.5 Attributes of a Regional Hegemon ... 46
2.6 Relationship and Differences between Global and Regional Hegemons 49 2.7 Connection between the Long Cycle Theory and Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline ... 49
2.8 Analytical Framework: The Levels of Analysis ... 54
2.8.1 The Individual Level of Analysis ... 54
2.8.2 The Domestic Level of Analysis: ... 55
2.8.3 The International Level of Analysis ... 55
2.9 Conclusion ... 56
CHAPTER THREE LITERATURE REVIEW ... 57
3.1 Introduction ... 57
3.2 General Overview of Literature on Hegemony ... 57
3.3 General Literature on the rise of Nigeria’s Hegemonic status ... 62
3.4 Literature on Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline ... 79
3.4.1 Literature on Bad Governance as a cause of Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline ... 79
3.4.2 Literature on lack of Unity as a cause of Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline ... 87
3.4.3 Literature on Corruption as a cause of Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline ... 103
3.4.4 Literature on Insecurity as a cause of Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline ... 110
3.5 Conclusion ... 120
ix
CHAPTER FOUR HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF NIGERIA’S
HEGEMONIC STATUS IN WEST AFRICA ... 122
4.1 Introduction ... 122
4.2 Capabilities ... 123
4.3 Willingness ... 124
4.4 Integrity ... 125
4.5 Capabilities ... 126
4.5.1 Military Capabilities ... 126
4.5.2 Economic Capabilities ... 127
4.5.3 Political Capabilities ... 128
4.6 Willingness ... 130
4.6.1 Military Willingness ... 130
4.6.2 Economic Willingness ... 131
4.6.3 Political Willingness in West African Sub-Region ... 135
4.7 Integrity Indicator ... 145
4.8 The Declining Status of Nigeria’s Hegemony 1994 To 2015 ... 147
4.8.1 Decline in Military Capabilities ... 147
4.8.2 The Decline in Political Capabilities ... 148
4.8.3 Decline in Economic Capabilities ... 151
4.8.4 Decline in Political Willingness... 153
4.8.5 Decline in Military Willingness ... 154
4.8.6 Decline in Economic Willingness ... 155
4.8.7 Decline in Nigeria’s Integrity ... 156
4.9 Conclusion ... 158
CHAPTER FIVE CAUSES OF NIGERIA’S HEGEMONIC DECLINE AFTER 1994 ... 160
5.1 Introduction ... 160
5.2 The Systems Level of Analysis ... 163
5.2.1 Decline of Nigeria’s Leadership Role in AU and West Africa Countries ... 163
5.2.2 France Intervention as a Cause of Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline .. 169
x
5.2.3 Nigeria’s Relations with Major World Powers the UK and US as a
Cause of Her Decline ... 171
5.2.4 African Regional Complexes: Nigeria and South Africa ... 175
5.3 Pillars of a Hegemon ... 179
5.3.1 Unity of the Nigerian State and its Influence on Her Hegemony ... 180
5.3.2 Ethnicity and its Implications on Nigeria’s Hegemonic Status ... 187
5.3.3 Regionalism as a Cause of Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline ... 193
5.3.4 Decline of Effective Governance... 196
5.3.5 In-Congruence of Democracy and Practice: ... 199
5.3.6 Corruption as an Evidence of Bad Governance Responsible for Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline ... 202
5.3.7 Poverty as a Factor for Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline ... 210
5.3.8 Collapse of Internal Security ... 213
5.3.9 Boko Haram as a Factor Responsible for the Decline ... 217
5.3.10 Economic Decline ... 223
5.3.10.1 Decline of Trade ... 225
5.3.10.2 Debt Management as Cause of Decline ... 227
5.4 Nigeria’s Leaders Personality ... 232
5.4.1 General Sani Abacha Regime and Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline .. 234
5.4.2 President Olusegun Obasanjo’s Administration and Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline ... 235
5.4.3 President Umaru Musa Yar’adua’s Administration and Nigeria’s Decline ... 238
5.4.4 President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan Tenure And Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline ... 241
5.5 Conclusion ... 244
CHAPTER SIX IMPLICATIONS OF NIGERIA’S HEGEMONIC DECLINE ON WEST AFRICAN SUB-REGION ... 245
6.1 Introduction ... 245
6.2 Economic Implications of Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline in West Africa245 6.3 Political Implication of Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline in West Africa ... 252
6.4 Military Implications of Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline ... 257
6.5 Implications of the Decline on Nigeria ... 261
xi
6.6 Conclusion ... 264
CHAPTER SEVEN ... 265
CONCLUSION ... 265
7.1 Introduction ... 265
7.2 Findings Relating to the Levels of Analysis ... 267
7.2.2 Findings relating to the Internal Causes of Nigeria’s Decline ... 269
7.2.2.1 Findings Relating to Economic Factors as an Evidence of Nigeria’s Decline ... 274
7.2.3 Findings Relating to the Individual Level of Analysis ... 276
7.3 Findings relating to the Implications of Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline on West Africa ... 281
7.3.1 Findings relating to the Economic Implications of Nigeria’s Hegemonic Decline ... 281
7.3.2 Limitation of the Study ... 283
7.3.3 Contribution of the Study ... 284
7.4 Suggestions for Further Research ... 284
BIBLIOGRAPHY ... 286
Appendices ... 300
Appendix A: Data Collection Letter from GSGS ... 300
Appendix B: List of Respondents ... 301
Appendix C: Structured Questions Administered to Respondents ... 302
xii
LIST OF TABLES
Table 5.1 Inequalities between the Regions of Nigeria……….………...192 Table 5.2 Educational Attainment and Inequality across Geopolitical Zones (2014)……..194 Table 5.3 Below Shows Nigeria’s Domestic and External Loans from 1994 to 2010….…225
xiii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
ACF Arewa Consultative Forum ACP Africa Caribbean and Pacific AFDB African Development Bank
AG Action Group
AIDS Acquired immunity Deficiency Syndrome APC All Progressive Congress
APR Africa Progress Report
ASEAN Association of South-East Asian Nations
AU African Union
BOP Balance of Payment
CARA Conference on Assistance to Refugees in Africa CEAO Communuate Economique de’l Afrique de’l Quest CHOGM Commonwealth Heads of Governments meeting CMAG Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group
DFRRI Directorate of Food Roads and Rural Infrastructure ECOMOG Ecowas Monitoring Group
ECOWAS ECONOMIC Community of West African States EFCC Economic and Financial Crimes Commission EM 10 Emerging Markets 10
EPA Economic Partnership Agreement
EU European Union
FAO Food and Agricultural Organization FDI Foreign Direct Investment
FEAP Family Economic Advancement Programme G-77 Group of 77
GCI Global Competitive Index GDP Gross Domestic Product 3Gs Global Growth Generations
GUNT Government of National Unity and Transition
xiv
HIV Human Immune Virus
ICJ International Court of Justice
ICPC Independent Corrupt Practices Commission IDPs Internally Displaced People’s
IIAG Ibrahim Index of African Development INEC Independent National Electoral Commission ING Interim National Government
IPOB Indigenous Peoples of Biafra JTF Joint Task Force
LCBC Lake Chad Basin Countries LDCs Least Developing Countries
LEEDS Local Government Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy
MASSOP Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra MEND Movement for the Emancipation OF THE Niger Delta
MNJTF Multi-national Joint Task Force
NALDA Nigerian Agricultural and Land Development Authority NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NCNC national Council of Nigerian Citizens NDDC Niger Delta Development Commission NDLEA National Drugs Law Enforcement Agency
NEEDS National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy NEPA National Electric Power Authority
NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development NEPU Northern Elements Progressive Union NPC Northern People Congress
NPEP national Poverty Eradication programme NPN National Party of Nigeria
NPP Nigerian Peoples Party NYSC National Youth Service Corp OAU organization of African Unity
xv OFN Operation Feed the Nation
OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries PAP Poverty Alleviation Programme
PASED Programme for the Assistance of Security and Development PDP Peoples Democrtic Party
PEP Poverty Alleviation Programme PPP Public Private Partnership PRP peoples Redemption Party PSC Peace and Security Council PSO Peace Support Operation RBS Rural Banking Scheme
RCCG Redeemed Christian Church of God RES Rural Electricity Scheme
SADC South African Development Community SALWs Small and Light Weapons
SCOAN Synagogue Church of all Nations
SEEDS States Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy SME Small and Medium Enterprise
SSS State Security Service TAC Technical Aid Corp
TNC Trans national Corporation UBE Universal Basic Education
UK United Kingdom
UN United Nations
UNCAC United Nations Conference against Corruption
UNCTAI United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNISFA United Nations Security Force for Abyei
UNMAID United Nations Mission in Darfur UNMISS United Nations Mission in South Sudan UNOC United Nations Operation in Congo UNSC United Nations Security Council
xvi UPN Unity Party of Nigeria US United States
USSR United Soviet Socialist Republic WAGP West African Gas Pipeline
WAIC War against Indiscipline and Corruption WAMZ West African Monetary Zone
WAPP West African Power Pool
1
CHAPTER ONE RESEARCH OVERVIEW
1.1 Introduction
The significance of Nigeria as the largest country of indigenous Africans in the world as well as the largest economy in West Africa has been acknowledged by the international community thereby, referred to as the “giant of Africa” because of her enormous human and material resources. Nigeria has committed a lot of resources both human and material to maintain the role of “natural leader with a manifest destiny” (Bach, 2007, 301). Nelson Mandela, former South Africa’s president rightly acknowledged Nigeria’s leadership position in Africa when he lamented;
“the world will not respect Africa until Nigeria earns that respect.
The black people of the world need Nigeria to be great as a source of pride and confidence” (Maja-Pearce, 2013, 4).
Thus, Nigeria’s leadership in West Africa is undisputable and her hegemonic influence rather than self-acclaimed is acknowledged by West African countries themselves as well as the international community. President Barrack Obama while meeting with Nigeria’s president Muhammadu Buhari declared Nigeria as the most important country in sub Saharan Africa (Kelly, 2015).
The West African sub-region is one of the five sub-regions of the African continent namely, Central Africa, East Africa, North Africa, South Africa and West African sub-regions. There are seventeen countries in the West Africa sub-region that form the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) namely; Benin Republic, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Cote d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea,
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Sahara Reporters. (2012, September 7). Enough Is Enough! Arewa Tells Boko Haram; Negotiate and Lay Down Arms. Sahara Reporters. New York.
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Thesis and Dissetations
299
Ojekwe, A. A. (2010). Peacekeeping in West Africa : An Analysis of Nigeria â€TM s Roles , 1990-2005. Atlanta University.
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300 Appendices
Appendix A: Data Collection Letter from GSGS
301
APPENDIX B: LIST OF RESPONDENTS Academics
1- Professor Habu Mohd,
Bayero University Kano, Nigeria
2- Associate Professor Abubakar Jika Jiddere, Bayero University Kano, Nigeria
3- Professor Kayode Omojuwa,
Ahamadu Bello University Zaria, Kaduna, Nigeria 4- Professor Ayo Raymond Dunmoye,
Ahamadu Bello University Zaria, Kaduna, Nigeria 5- Dr. Knocks Tapiwa Zengeni,
Universaiti Utara Malaysia 6- Alkasim A Yusuf
Sokoto State Polytechnic, Sokoto, Nigeria, 7- Rauf Sakariyau,
Nigerian Police Academy, Kano, Nigeria 8- Professor Ogaba Oche
Nigerian Institute of International Affairs Lagos, Nigeria
302
Appendix C: Structured Questions Administered to Respondents
Nigeria has been referred to as the West African Hegemon since her independence in 1960. The country has sustained her role not only in West Africa but in the entire continent. However, the country’s Hegemonic influence began a steady and zig-zag decline from 1994 as a result of prolonged military rule and the failure of the Nigerian military elite to sincerely relinquish political power to democratically elected leadership. Democracy was restored in the country after the sudden death of the head of the military Junta, General Sani Abacha in 1998. Democracy signaled a vote of confidence for Nigeria’s Hegemonic status, but the hopes for Nigeria’s development in all facets were dashed by the continuous decline of her influence in the global arena. In view of the fore-going;
1- Do you believe Nigeria is a Hegemonic power in West Africa?
2- What roles has Nigeria been playing to qualify her as the West African Hegemon
3- Do you believe Nigeria enjoy the legitimacy from West African states to act as a Hegemon?
4- Has Nigeria been discharging the responsibilities of a regional Hegemon in West Africa?
5- Is Nigeria declining as a Hegemon of West Africa in recent times?
6- What are the factors that accounts for the decline?
7- In what way has bad governance influence Nigeria’s Hegemonic decline in West Africa?
8- Has the colonial character of the Nigerian state anything to do with her decline?
303
9- How did lack of National Integration contributed towards the country’s Hegemonic power decline in West Africa?
10- What role has endemic corruption played in the country’s Hegemonic decline in the region
11-Is there any relationship between persistent poverty in the country and her Hegemonic power decline in the West African sub-region?
12-Internal security deterioration within Nigeria has also caused the decline of her regional influence; do you agree, how?
13-Nigeria’s relation with US, UK and France has played a role in her decline, do you agree, how?
14-What role did the personalities of Nigerian leaders played in the decline process of her Hegemonic power in the region?
15-What implications have the Nigeria’s Hegemonic power decline has on West Africa as a region?
16-What implications have the decline on Nigeria’s as a regional power within West Africa?
17-Is there any powerful contender to Nigeria’s Hegemonic position in the entire West Africa?
18-Which country is likely to assume Hegemonic power in West Africa in the absence of Nigeria?
19-Can Nigeria’s Hegemonic power decline be reversed?
20-What measures should Nigeria employ in order to reverse her Hegemonic power decline in the West African sub-region?
21-Does Nigeria’s Hegemonic power decline means termination of her Hegemonic influence?
304
22-Has the return of democracy improved the influence of the country in the sub- region?
23-Why has the decline persisted despite democratic governance in Nigeria since 1999?
