Thanh Ngo-Duc, VanTan Phan
VNU Hanoi University of Science, Vietnam thanhnd@hus.edu.vn
BMKG Headquarters Office, Jakarta – Indonesia, 18-‐19 November 2013
The 1
stSoutheast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID)/ CORDEX Southeast Asia Workshop
Regional Climate Modeling and needs in Vietnam
Dynamical Downscaling activities in Vietnam
• RegCM
• REMO/COSMO
• CCAM
• MM5CL
• WRF
Department of Meteorology Hanoi University
of Science
• PRECIS
• WRF
InsItute of Meteorology Hydrology and
Environment
(IMHEN)
The National Target Program to response to climate change:
Decision158/2008/Q Đ -TTg
Phase I Kick-‐off
Phase II
ImplementaIon Phase III
Development
2009-2010
2011-2015
post-2015
Objectives:
to assess climate change’s impacts &develop feasible action plan to effective respond to
CC, take over
opportunities to develop towards a low-carbon
economy, and joint
international community’s effort to CC impacts and protect global climatic system
Vietnam
Climate Change, Sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam
MONRE, 2009
1. Climate Change in Viet Nam 2. Climate Change, Sea Level Rise
Scenarios for Viet Nam
3. Inundation Maps
MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3 software and Statistical Downscaling Method
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/wigley/magicc/
Climate Change, Sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam
MONRE, 2009
Climate Change, Sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam
MONRE, 2012
1. More data, more detailed analysis 2. Statistical downscaling & Dynamical
downscaling (PRECIS, AGCM/MRI) 3. More information at regional/
provincial level
4. Extreme climate information (eg. TXx, TNn, RX1day, T2m35)
Compare to the scenario of MONRE in 2009
Climate Change, Sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam
MONRE, 2012
Precipitation change in the 21st century for the 4 seasons, according to low, average and high emission scenarios.
Annual average Summer Winter
Precipitation change for average emission scenarios
Why? What is the mechanism?
IMHEN – Hadley Centre
• PRECIS model
• Initial and boundary GCM data: HadCM3
• SRES scenarios
• Horizontal resolution of approximately 25km
IMHEN – BCCR (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research -‐ Norway)
Regional model: WRF-CL (WRF 3.5)
• Initial and boundary GCM data:
NorESM
• RCP4.5 and 8.5
• Baseline period: 1985-2005
• Future period: 2000-2100 (running continuously)
• Horizontal resolution: 25km x 25km
High-‐resolu:on downscaling for Vietnam 10 km & 20km – downscaling
Time: Jan 2012-June 2013
6 CMIP5
GCMs’ SSTs (adjusted)
CCAM-global (50 km)
CCAM-regional (10 km)
Baseline:1980-2000,
RCP4.5 & 8.5: 2045-2065, 2080-2100
2 CMIP5
GCMs’ SSTs (adjusted)
CCAM-global (100 km)
RegCM4 (20 km) climWRF (20km)
CSIRO – IMHEN – HUS (Ausaid, Australia)
Climate Downscaling activities in HUS
Simulation:
- Forced by ERA-40
Climate Downscaling activities in HUS
What we have done:
ì Domain selecIon
ì ResoluIon sensiIvity test
ì Physical parameterizaIon sensiIvity test
ì Model’s output validaIon
ì Future projecIons
Eg. Validation of RegCM3 over Vietnam
ì Domain: 85E-130E;
5S-27N
ì Resolution: 36km à
144 x 105
ì ICBC: ERA40, 1991-2000
ì OISST
Phan et al., 2009, Climate Research
GeopotenIal Height and wind during 1991-‐2000 at 500mb
RegCM3 can reproduce well the reanalysis fields, in
January
(winter) and July (summer)
Eg. Validation of RegCM3 over Vietnam
ERA40 JAN RegCM JAN
ERA40 JUL RegCM JAN
Propose: joint papers on the sensitivity experiments?
(Ngo-‐Duc et al., Clim. Res. under revision) A use of Three Regional Climate Models and their ensemble combina:on in
Projec:ng Future Climate in Vietnam
1980-1999 JJA average temperature & wind at 850hPa: GCMs versus
RCMs and ERA-40
JJA
Model performances in the baseline period
- Consistent spatial distribution
- RegCM: smaller wind speed
- REMO: overestimate temperature
- RegCM: cold bias
A use of Three Regional Climate Models and their ensemble combina:on in Projec:ng Future Climate in Vietnam
DJF
1980-1999 DJF average temperature & wind at 850hPa: GCMs versus
RCMs and ERA-40
Model performances in the baseline period
A use of Three Regional Climate Models and their ensemble combina:on in Projec:ng Future Climate in Vietnam
1980-1999 SST
• Underestimation of CCSM SST à less convection à less humidity transported to the mainland
-
Daily Precip,
-
T2m,
-
T2max,
-
T2min 1961-2007 61 stations Observation data used in the study
A use of Three Regional Climate Models and their ensemble combina:on in Projec:ng Future Climate in Vietnam
CCAM RegCM3 REMO
ENS: the average product
Scatter diagrams of simulated (a) 2m-temperature, and (b) precipitation compared to observations at 61 stations
ENS product yields a much
more consistent distribution
Combining future climate
ì T2m & Precipitation
ì extreme events:
1. TXx: Annual maximum value of Tm
2. TNn: Annual minimum value of Tx
3. RX1day: Annual maximum 1-day precipitation A1B scenario, period: 2000-2050
A use of Three Regional Climate Models and their ensemble combina:on in Projec:ng Future Climate in Vietnam
A use of Three Regional Climate Models and their ensemble combina:on in Projec:ng Future Climate in Vietnam
A use of Three Regional Climate Models and their ensemble combina:on in 23
Projec:ng Future Climate in Vietnam
A use of Three Regional Climate Models and their ensemble combina:on in Projec:ng Future Climate in Vietnam
Needs in Vietnam
• Detailed downscaling products
• From projections to impact and adaptation studies?
• Physical mechanism of changes
• Human resources
• International collaboration
• Computing resources
U P S
Computing Network 192.168.1.0/24
Data & Man. & Pub. Net 10.8.52.0/24
Internet
Sun HTTP FTP Webmeteo PCs
Login Node
Head Nodes
Computing Nodes
NAS
ì ~1TFlops
ì ~200TB
ì Interconnect Network:
10Gbps