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Regional Climate Modeling and needs in Vietnam

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Thanh Ngo-Duc, VanTan Phan

VNU Hanoi University of Science, Vietnam thanhnd@hus.edu.vn

BMKG  Headquarters  Office,  Jakarta  –  Indonesia,  18-­‐19  November  2013  

The 1

st

Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID)/ CORDEX Southeast Asia Workshop

Regional Climate Modeling and needs in Vietnam

(2)

Dynamical Downscaling activities in Vietnam

•  RegCM

•  REMO/COSMO

•  CCAM

•  MM5CL

•  WRF

Department  of   Meteorology   Hanoi  University  

of  Science  

•  PRECIS

•  WRF

InsItute  of   Meteorology   Hydrology  and  

Environment  

(IMHEN)  

(3)

The National Target Program to response to climate change:

Decision158/2008/Q Đ -TTg

Phase  I   Kick-­‐off  

Phase  II  

ImplementaIon     Phase  III  

Development  

2009-2010

2011-2015

post-2015

Objectives:

to assess climate changes impacts &

develop feasible action plan to effective respond to

CC, take over

opportunities to develop towards a low-carbon

economy, and joint

international communitys effort to CC impacts and protect global climatic system

Vietnam

(4)

Climate Change, Sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam

MONRE, 2009

1.   Climate Change in Viet Nam 2.   Climate Change, Sea Level Rise

Scenarios for Viet Nam

3.   Inundation Maps

(5)

— 

MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3 software and Statistical Downscaling Method

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/wigley/magicc/

Climate Change, Sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam

MONRE, 2009

(6)

Climate Change, Sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam

MONRE, 2012

1.   More data, more detailed analysis 2.   Statistical downscaling & Dynamical

downscaling (PRECIS, AGCM/MRI) 3.   More information at regional/

provincial level

4.   Extreme climate information (eg. TXx, TNn, RX1day, T2m35)

Compare to the scenario of MONRE in 2009

(7)

Climate Change, Sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam

MONRE, 2012

Precipitation change in the 21st century for the 4 seasons, according to low, average and high emission scenarios.

Annual average Summer Winter

Precipitation change for average emission scenarios

Why? What is the mechanism?

(8)

IMHEN  –  Hadley  Centre  

•  PRECIS model

•  Initial and boundary GCM data: HadCM3

•  SRES scenarios

•  Horizontal resolution of approximately 25km

(9)

IMHEN  –  BCCR  (Bjerknes  Centre  for  Climate  Research  -­‐  Norway)  

Regional model: WRF-CL (WRF 3.5)

•  Initial and boundary GCM data:

NorESM

•  RCP4.5 and 8.5

•  Baseline period: 1985-2005

•  Future period: 2000-2100 (running continuously)

•  Horizontal resolution: 25km x 25km

(10)

High-­‐resolu:on  downscaling  for  Vietnam   10 km & 20km – downscaling

Time: Jan 2012-June 2013

6 CMIP5

GCMs’ SSTs (adjusted)

CCAM-global (50 km)

CCAM-regional (10 km)

Baseline:1980-2000,

RCP4.5 & 8.5: 2045-2065, 2080-2100

2 CMIP5

GCMs’ SSTs (adjusted)

CCAM-global (100 km)

RegCM4 (20 km) climWRF (20km)

CSIRO – IMHEN – HUS (Ausaid, Australia)

(11)

Climate  Downscaling  activities  in  HUS  

Simulation:

- Forced by ERA-40

(12)

Climate  Downscaling  activities  in  HUS  

What  we  have  done:  

ì  Domain  selecIon  

ì  ResoluIon  sensiIvity  test  

ì  Physical  parameterizaIon  sensiIvity  test  

ì  Model’s  output  validaIon  

ì  Future  projecIons  

(13)

Eg. Validation of RegCM3 over Vietnam

ì  Domain: 85E-130E;

5S-27N

ì  Resolution: 36km à

144 x 105

ì  ICBC: ERA40, 1991-2000

ì  OISST

Phan et al., 2009, Climate Research

(14)

GeopotenIal  Height  and  wind  during  1991-­‐2000  at  500mb  

RegCM3  can   reproduce  well   the    reanalysis   fields,  in  

January  

(winter)  and   July  (summer)  

Eg. Validation of RegCM3 over Vietnam

ERA40 JAN RegCM JAN

ERA40 JUL RegCM JAN

Propose: joint papers on the sensitivity experiments?

(15)

(Ngo-­‐Duc  et  al.,  Clim.  Res.  under  revision)   A  use  of    Three  Regional  Climate  Models  and  their  ensemble  combina:on  in  

Projec:ng  Future  Climate  in  Vietnam  

(16)

1980-1999 JJA average temperature & wind at 850hPa: GCMs versus

RCMs and ERA-40

JJA

Model performances in the baseline period

-  Consistent spatial distribution

-  RegCM: smaller wind speed

-  REMO: overestimate temperature

-  RegCM: cold bias

A  use  of    Three  Regional  Climate  Models  and  their  ensemble  combina:on  in   Projec:ng  Future  Climate  in  Vietnam  

(17)

DJF

1980-1999 DJF average temperature & wind at 850hPa: GCMs versus

RCMs and ERA-40

Model performances in the baseline period

A  use  of    Three  Regional  Climate  Models  and  their  ensemble  combina:on  in   Projec:ng  Future  Climate  in  Vietnam  

(18)

1980-1999 SST

•  Underestimation of CCSM SST à less convection à less humidity transported to the mainland

(19)

- 

Daily Precip,

- 

T2m,

- 

T2max,

- 

T2min 1961-2007 61 stations Observation data used in the study

A  use  of    Three  Regional  Climate  Models  and  their  ensemble  combina:on  in   Projec:ng  Future  Climate  in  Vietnam  

(20)

CCAM RegCM3 REMO

ENS: the average product

Scatter diagrams of simulated (a) 2m-temperature, and (b) precipitation compared to observations at 61 stations

ENS product yields a much

more consistent distribution

(21)

Combining future climate

ì  T2m & Precipitation

ì  extreme events:

1.   TXx: Annual maximum value of Tm

2.   TNn: Annual minimum value of Tx

3.   RX1day: Annual maximum 1-day precipitation A1B scenario, period: 2000-2050

A  use  of    Three  Regional  Climate  Models  and  their  ensemble  combina:on  in   Projec:ng  Future  Climate  in  Vietnam  

(22)

A  use  of    Three  Regional  Climate  Models  and  their  ensemble  combina:on  in   Projec:ng  Future  Climate  in  Vietnam  

(23)

A  use  of    Three  Regional  Climate  Models  and  their  ensemble  combina:on  in   23

Projec:ng  Future  Climate  in  Vietnam  

(24)

A  use  of    Three  Regional  Climate  Models  and  their  ensemble  combina:on  in   Projec:ng  Future  Climate  in  Vietnam  

(25)

Needs  in  Vietnam  

•  Detailed downscaling products

•  From projections to impact and adaptation studies?

•  Physical mechanism of changes

•  Human resources

•  International collaboration

•  Computing resources

(26)

U P S

Computing Network 192.168.1.0/24

Data & Man. & Pub. Net 10.8.52.0/24

Internet

Sun HTTP FTP Webmeteo PCs

Login Node

Head Nodes

Computing Nodes

NAS

ì  ~1TFlops

ì  ~200TB

ì  Interconnect Network:

10Gbps

Computing system in HUS  

Rujukan

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