Goals and Aspiration Goals and Aspiration
for Food Security in the Advent of for Food Security in the Advent of
Climate Change Climate Change
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Abd Shukor Abd Rahman Director General
MARDI
Abd Shukor Abd Rahman Director General
MARDI
• Any change in climate over time that directly and indirectly affects human and their activities as well as natural systems and processes.
• Any change in climate over time that directly and indirectly affects human and their activities as well as natural systems and processes.
Access for all people at all times to adequate food for a healthy and active life (FAO,1983)
Access for all people at all times to adequate food for a healthy and active life (FAO,1983)
Components Adequacy Stability
Physical and economic access Components
Adequacy Stability
Physical and economic access
National level: The maintenance of stable and reliable supplies of food to domestic markets
Individual level: Available supplies of food conforming to nutritionally National level: The maintenance of stable and reliable supplies of food to domestic markets
Individual level: Available supplies of food conforming to nutritionally of food conforming to nutritionally acceptable standards.
Self-sufficiency – Staple Food Food security: Main Staple Food Security, i.e. rice.
of food conforming to nutritionally acceptable standards.
Self-sufficiency – Staple Food Food security: Main Staple Food Security, i.e. rice.
Climate change will bring:
Longer dry season, drought and land degradation
Shorter rainy season but with intense rain
with intense rain
Fewer typhoon but stronger
New pest and diseases
Disruption to trade, transport
Factors directly connect climate change and agricultural productivity:
Average temperature increases Change in rainfall amount and patterns Ri i g t h i [CO2]
Factors directly connect climate change and agricultural productivity:
Average temperature increases Change in rainfall amount and patterns Ri i g t h i [CO2]
Climate Change &
Climate Change &
Agricultural productivity Agricultural productivity
Rising atmospheric [CO2]
Sea level rise; soil salinisation and cropland erosion Change in climatic variability and extreme events Pollution levels such as trophospheric ozone Rising atmospheric [CO2]
Sea level rise; soil salinisation and cropland erosion Change in climatic variability and extreme events Pollution levels such as trophospheric ozone
Types of impacts on agricultural production Types of impacts on agricultural production
Item subject
To impact: Temp Rainfall CO2
Extreme Events
Sea Level
Low lying land X X
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inundation X X
Weed
competition X X X
Insects, fungus,
and diseases X X
Types of impacts on agricultural production
Types of impacts on agricultural production
Item subject
To impact: Temp Rainfall CO2
Extreme Events
Sea Level
Rate of gain X X
Livestock
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Feed use X X
Milk production X X
Fertility X X
Carrying capacity X X
CLIMATE VARIATION CLIMATE VARIATION
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Drought Global
Warming Typhoon
•• An increase 1An increase 1°°C daily C daily average may result in a average may result in a 10% yield reduction 10% yield reduction
•• High night THigh night T°° may causeHigh night THigh night T may cause may causemay cause reduction in CHO reserves reduction in CHO reserves and lead to an increase in and lead to an increase in empty grain
empty grain
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Observed Changes in Productivity Of Rice Due to Drought (El-Nino)
Item Mean yield loss (%) Mean yield loss for
Non El Nino Years (NEY)
5.65
Estimated loss of rice yield due to climatic variability: Malaysia 1980 - 1999
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(NEY) Mean yield loss for
El Nino Years (NEY) 6.8 Net El Nino Effects -1.15
• Heat exhaustion
• Respiratory problems
• Increase in
cardiovascular diseases
• Decreased resistance to disease due to increased climatic stress
• Fall in agricultural productivity » decrease in grain feed supply which increases animal feed price and cost of
i l d ti
• Poor quality feeds due to plant nutrient deficiencies »» decrease animal productivity
animal production
Short maturating variety
Latest variety : 100 days (MR 211) Less risky to water stress
Adaptation strategies Adaptation strategies
Less risky to water stress
Development of drought resistant varieties
Aerobic rice production develop high yielding varieties
• Increase soil water storage capacity
• Reduce soil evaporation by promoting early growth of
p g y g
crop canopy
• Increase soil organic matter derived from agro-waste
• Develop and use new cultivars with deep rooting system
Irrigation management
optimize water use efficiency
dry rotation and dry y y seeding
improved irrigation techniques
reduce water loss and wastage
• Improve genetics to achieve shorter finishing period before marketing
• Incorporate more local genetic materials that are adapted to local environmental and more heat resistant
I t t i l d ti
• Integrate animal production with tree crops
• Develop alternative feed additives (natural – herbal)
• Utilise more local feed resources
• Provide controlled environment incorporated with manure management
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pollinator
Transforming the Agriculture Sector &
Ensuring Sufficient Food For the Nation
Transforming the Agriculture Sector &
Ensuring Sufficient Food For the Nation
Food Security Action Plan Food Security Action Plan
1. Increasing rice production
2. Increasing Rice Stockpile 7. Idle Land Management
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pollinator 3. Increasing Agricultural Production & Productivity 4. Incentives
5. Strenghtening Marketing
& Distribution Capability 6. Green Book Campaign
Maintenance and upgrading of infrastructure
Increasing Rice Production Increasing Rice Production
Agricultural Inputs
• Lime
• NPK fertilizers Average Yield
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pollinator
Modern Farm Management
• Mechanization
• Leveling of land
Granary Development
• Sabah
• Sarawak Average Yield
of 4 m.t/ ha
INCREASING RICE STOCKPILE INCREASING RICE
STOCKPILE
Target
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pollinator
Current
INCENTIVES INCENTIVES
SUBSIDIES Reducing farmers
burden
Guaranteed Minimum
INCENTIVES Encouraging increased production
Paddy Production
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pollinator Guaranteed Minimum
Price Paddy Fertilizers
Paddy Production
Certified Seeds Other non-paddy Crop
Production
GREEN BOOK CAMPAIGN GREEN BOOK CAMPAIGN
Fishery/aquaculture
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pollinator Chicken & Duck
Rearing Distribution of Green
Book Kit
IDLE LAND MANAGEMENT IDLE LAND MANAGEMENT
Idle Land
•Unattended for >
2
Abandoned Ponds
•1,964 fresh t d 341
pollinator
2 years
•34,362 ha identified
water ponds 341 ha
•733 brackish water ponds 491 ha
RESEARCH FOCUS
RESEARCH FOCUS
RESEARCH FOCUS RESEARCH FOCUS
Agricultural research
Effects of temperature and rainfall under field conditions
Developing environmental friendly Developing environmental friendly mitigation and adaptation options
Development of new cultivars with more resistant to extreme
weathers
RESEARCH FOCUS RESEARCH FOCUS
Climate modeling
Improved hydrological cycle model
Understanding link between local
Understanding link between local climate with global warming
RESEARCH FOCUS RESEARCH FOCUS
Cross disciplinary research
Natural and social sciences
Integrated crop-climate modeling
Uncertainties in physical, biological and socio-economic processes
Climate change results in adverse Climate change results in adverse effect to the agriculture sector effect to the agriculture sector Crop and livestock productivity are Crop and livestock productivity are likely to reduce due to rise in likely to reduce due to rise in temperature, drought and flood temperature, drought and floodpp ,, gg Appropriate adaptation measures Appropriate adaptation measures are needed to reduce the adverse are needed to reduce the adverse effect of climate change
effect of climate change Need to
Need to agressivelyagressively embark on R&D embark on R&D
Thank
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you
Impacts of Climate Change on Impacts of Climate Change on
Ecosystem Ecosystem
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pollinator
Impacts of Climate Change on Impacts of Climate Change on
Ecosystem Ecosystem
Changes in distribution of species, ecosystems boundaries and biomass
Changes in phenology of biotic and abiotic processes
Changes in structure of plants communities
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pollinator
Increased pests and diseases
Southeast Asia Southeast Asia
Sector Vulnerability ConfidenceConfidence
Food & Fiber Highly HighHigh
Water Resource Moderate HighHigh
Biodiversity Highly HighHigh
Coastal Ecosystem Highly HighHigh
Land degradation Highly HighHigh
IPCC; AR4 Vulnerability; highly, moderately , moderately resilient Confidence; V. high,
Confidence; V. high, high,high,medium , lowmedium , low
Item subject
To impact: Temp Rainfall CO2
Extreme Events
Sea Level
Quantity X X X
Seasonality of
supply X
Irrigation and water supply Types of impacts on specific sector
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Non agricultural
competition X X X
Item subject
To impact: Temp Rainfall CO2 Extreme Events
Sea Level
Plant Size – yield X X X X
Crops and forages
Types of impacts on specific sector
Water
requirement X X
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Item subject
To impact: Temp Rainfall CO2 Extreme Events
Sea Level
Soil Moisture X X X
Soils
Types of impacts on specific sector
Soil Moisture X X X
Soil fertility X X
Year Estimated
% net loss
Production (‘000 tonnes)
Estimated production without El Nino
(‘000 tonnes)
Difference (‘000 tonnes)
Price (RM/ton)
Loss (RM mill) 1981 4.0 1,748.77 1,818.72 69.95 511.85 35.80
Estimated Net loss of rice due to El Nino
1980 1.8 1,884.98 1,918.91 33.92 660.00 22.38 1998 5.66 1,994.24 2,107.11 112.87 1,413.85 159.58
Total net loss 217.76
•• Droughts » Unavailability Droughts » Unavailability of safe drinking water
of safe drinking water
•• Floods » Death of grazing Floods » Death of grazing livestock (e.g.
livestock (e.g. JohoreJohore, Dec 2006), Dec 2006) Hi h t liti
Hi h t liti
•• Higher mortalitiesHigher mortalities
Increasing Agricultural Production & Productivity
Increasing Agricultural Production & Productivity
Crop Livestock Fisheries
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PFPP TAC AIZ
STRENGHTENING THE MARKETING & DISTRIBUTION
CAPABILITY STRENGHTENING THE MARKETING & DISTRIBUTION
CAPABILITY
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pollinator Collection Channel
2 Upgrading 7 New
Distribution Channel 4 Upgrading
2 New
Pasar Tani 230 existing 50 additional
Barriers to implement adaptation strategies
Economic Economic Informational Social
Attitudinal Behavioral
Approaches to deal with barriers Support in research and extension capacity
capacity
Investment in new technical strategies
Development of new infrastructure, policies and institutions
WHAT NEXT ???
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Water Resource Management Water Resource Management Water Resource Management Water Resource Management
What’s been done:
Continued improvement of irrigation infrastructures water recycling, effricient / timely distribution of water, conservation strategy
Enhanced management support services storage system, delivery, distribution etc.
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storage system, delivery, distribution etc.
Management & control system irrigation schedule Telemetry System
indegeneous water storage system (sugarcane plantation) man-make lakes as storage + mobile sprinkler system cheap and easy to maintain
Current Aerobic Improved Aerobic Water requirement
(mm/season)
1100-1300 (M) 1150-1400 (R)
440-760
560 (ave) 470-650
Yield (ton/ha) 5-7 (M)
7-9 (R)
2.2-3.6
2.85 (ave) 4.0-5.3 Irrigation water Standing 5 10mm Alternate; Alternate; wet
& dry Irrigation water Standing 5-10mm wet & dry & dry (Bunded) Productivity (kg/mm) 0.51-0.64 0.44-0.76 0.75-1.08
Outline of presentation Outline of presentation
1. Definition
2. Climate Change and Agriculture 3. Types Of Impacts
4. Vulnerability 1. Definition
2. Climate Change and Agriculture 3. Types Of Impacts
4. Vulnerability
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5. Adaptation Strategies 6. Food Security Action Plan
7. Research Gaps, Needs And Way Forward 8. Conclusion
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5. Adaptation Strategies 6. Food Security Action Plan
7. Research Gaps, Needs And Way Forward 8. Conclusion
