UNITED STATES

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CHINA’S INCREASING PRESENCE IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN REGION AND THE RESPONSE OF THE

UNITED STATES

BY

MUHAMMAD FARHAN BIN BADOR

A dissertation submitted in fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Human Sciences in Political Science

Kulliyyah of Islamic Revealed Knowledge and Human Sciences

International Islamic University Malaysia

DECEMBER 2018

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ABSTRACT

This study examines the increasing presence of China in the Southeast Asian region and the response of the United States. This study uses the Structural Realist theory, especially its Offensive Realism subdivision as its theoretical framework. Data for this research are collected from official documents, official reports, dailies, articles and books. Historical overview of China’s political landscape suggests that Beijing’s intention to become an influential state in Southeast Asia began with Deng Xiaoping’s ascendancy to the helm of power in 1978. The analysis of China’s policy of strategic shift suggests that the administration of President Barack Obama responded and introduced, among others, the “Pivot to Asia” policy to contain China’s rise. The study finds that the United States perceives China as the main competitor in the region. It also suggests that China is determined to contain the United States’

influence in the region more through economic diplomacy and less through military confrontation. Finally, the study also finds that Southeast Asian states have begun to acquire more benefit from this apparent less confrontational approach between China and the United States in the region despite its intensity and competitiveness.

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ثحبلا ةصلاخ

درو ايسآ قرش بونج ةقطنم في ديازتلما نييصلا دوجولا ةساردب ثحبلا اذه موقي تيالاولا

اهعرف تاذلباو ةيوينبلا ةيعقاولا ةيرظنلا ىلع ثحبلا اذله يرظنلا راطلإا دنتسي .هيلع ةدحتلما ةيمويلا دئارلجاو ةيسمرلا ريراقتلاو تادنتسلما نم ثحبلا اذله تناايبلا عجم تم .ةيموجلها ةيعقاولا تاعلطتلا نإف ينصلل يسايسلا خيراتلا لىإ رظنلبا .بتكلاو تلااقلماو ةلود حبصتل ةينيصلا

في مكلحا ديلاقم غنيب وايش غنيد ليوت عم تأدب ايسآ قرش بونج ةقطنم في يرثتأ تاذ امباوأ كاربا سيئرلا ةرادإ نأ لىإ ةينيصلا ةسايسلا في يجيتاترسلاا لوحتلا ليلتح يرشي .ينصلا لا نم دحلل ايسآ رومح ةسايس اهنمض نم روملأا نم ٍديدع يمدقتب كلذل تباجتسا دعاصت

ًاضيأ دجوو .ةقطنلما في ًاسيئر ًاسفانم ينصلا برتعت ةدحتلما تيالاولا نآ ثحبلا دجو .نييصلا ةيسامولبدلا للاخ نم ةقطنلما في ةدحتلما تيالاولا يرثتأ صيلقت ىلع ةمزاع ينصلا نأ لود نأ ثحبلا دجو ًايرخأ .لقأ لكشب ةيركسعلا ةهجاولمباو ،بركأ لكشب ةيداصتقلاا رش بونج في ةدحتلما تيالاولاو ينصلا ينب لعافتلا اذه نم اتهدافتسا ةدياز في تأدب ايسآ ق

.ديدشلا يدحتلاو ،سفانتلا ةدش نم مغرلبا ةقطنلما

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APPROVAL PAGE

I certify that I have supervised and read this study and that in my opinion, it conforms to acceptable standards of scholarly presentation and is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Human Sciences in Political Science

………..

Wahabuddin Ra’ees Supervisor

………..

Tunku Mohar bin Tunku Mohd Mokhtar Co-Supervisor

I certify that I have read this study and that in my opinion it conforms to acceptable standards of scholarly presentation and is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Human Sciences in Political Science

………..

Ishtiaq Hossain Examiner

This thesis was submitted to the Department of Political Science and is accepted as a fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Human Sciences in Political Science

………..

El Fatih A. Abdelsalam

Head, Department of Political Science This thesis was submitted to the Kulliyyah of Islamic Revealed Knowledge and Human Sciences and is accepted as a fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Human Sciences in Political Science

………..

Mohammad Abdul Quayum Abdus Salam

Dean, Kulliyyah of Islamic Revealed Knowledge and Human Sciences

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DECLARATION

I hereby declare that this dissertation is the result of my own investigations, except where otherwise stated. I also declare that it has not been previously or concurrently submitted as a whole for any other degrees at IIUM or other institutions.

Muhammad Farhan bin Bador

Signature ... Date ...

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INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIC UNIVERSITY MALAYSIA

DECLARATION OF COPYRIGHT AND AFFIRMATION OF FAIR USE OF UNPUBLISHED RESEARCH

CHINA’S INCREASING PRESENCE IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN REGION AND THE RESPONSE OF THE UNITED STATES

I declare that the copyright holders of this dissertation are jointly owned by the student and IIUM.

No part of this unpublished research may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without prior written permission of the copyright holder except as provided below

1. Any material contained in or derived from this unpublished research may be used by others in their writing with due acknowledgement.

2. IIUM or its library will have the right to make and transmit copies (print or electronic) for institutional and academic purposes.

3. The IIUM library will have the right to make, store in a retrieved system and supply copies of this unpublished research if requested by other universities and research libraries.

By signing this form, I acknowledged that I have read and understand the IIUM Intellectual Property Right and Commercialization policy.

Affirmed by Muhammad Farhan bin Bador

……..……….. ………..

Signature Date

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

In the Name of Allah, Most Gracious, Most Merciful

Praise be to Allah (SWT), the Almighty, the Lord of the Universe, for giving me the chance to complete this research. I would like to thank my supervisor, Prof.

Dr. Wahabuddin Ra’ees who has spent his time and shared his experience and knowledge with me during my research. Prof. Dr. Wahabuddin’s willingness to accept me to work under his guidance despite my lack of knowledge in this subject is greatly appreciated.

I would like to thank my co-supervisor, Asst. Prof. Dr. Tunku Mohar bin Tunku Mohd Mokhtar for reading this piece and providing valuable advice and suggestions to improve this work. I would also like to thank Prof. El Fatih A.

Abdelsalam, the current Head of Department of Political Science, for his patience and moral support. My special thanks goes to Asst. Prof. Dr. Khairil Izamin bin Ahmad and Assoc. Prof. Datuk Dr. Marzuki bin Mohamad for their assistance and wisdom during their tenure as the Head of Department of Political Science. I also would like to extend my gratitude to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ishtiaq Hossain for his advice and comments on my work. To all lecturers of the Department, I am grateful for their knowledge and help in my Postgraduate studies.

Finally, I want to thank my parents for their love, care and support. To my father, Bador bin Md. Shah and my mother, Norazila binti Aziz, your confidence in your son to achieve success in his studies is remarkable. Without your advice and prayers, I would not have been able to finish this research. Your generous financial support has also helped me to focus on my research during my study. I also want to thank my siblings, Nurul Shahida, Nur Shamimi, Nur Farhana and Muhammad Fahmi, for their understanding and relentless support during my postgraduate journey.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Abstract ... ii

Abstract in Arabic ... iii

Approval Page ... iv

Declaration ... v

Copyright Page ... vi

Acknowledgements ... vii

Table of Contents ... viii

List of Abbreviations ... x

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ... 1

1.1 Introduction ... 1

1.2 Statement of the Problem ... 2

1.3 Significance of the Study ... 3

1.4 Research Objectives ... 4

1.5 Literature Review ... 4

1.6 Theoretical Framework ... 12

1.7 Method of Data Collection ... 16

1.8 Chapter Overview ... 17

CHAPTER TWO: THE RISE OF CHINA: BACKGROUND AND MAIN FEATURES ... 18

2.2 Background of China’s Rise ... 18

2.2.1 China after the fall of Qing Dynasty ... 19

2.2.2 China under the Leadership of Mao Zedong ... 20

2.2.3 The Rise of Deng Xiaoping ... 22

2.2.4 Post-Deng Economic Reforms ... 24

2.2.4.1 Jiang Zemin Administration ... 25

2.2.4.2 Hu Jintao Administration ... 27

2.2.4.3 Xi Jinping Administration ... 29

2.3 Main Features of Rising China ... 32

2.3.1 Economy ... 32

2.3.2 Military ... 35

2.3.3 Diplomacy ... 39

2.4 Conclusion ... 42

CHAPTER THREE: THE PRESENCE OF THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN REGION ... 43

3.2 United States’ Presence in Southeast Asian Region ... 43

3.2.1 United States-Southeast Asia Relations during the Cold War .... 45

3.2.2 United States-Southeast Asia Relations after the Cold War ... 51

3.2.3 United States-Southeast Asia Relations after 9/11 ... 57

3.3 China’s Presence in Southeast Asian Region Since 1978 ... 64

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CHAPTER FOUR: UNITED STATES’ RESPONSE TOWARDS

CHINA’S PRESENCE IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN REGION ... 75

4.2 The United States Dominance in Southeast Asian Region and Offensive Realism ... 76

4.3 The Need for Rebalancing ... 78

4.3.1 Security ... 78

4.3.3 Economy ... 83

4.4 Pivot to Asia ... 84

4.4.1 Military ... 86

4.4.3 Economy ... 101

4.5 Pivot to Asia after Obama ... 106

CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSION ... 111

BIBLIOGRAPHY ... 117

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

A2AD Anti-Access/Area Denial ACFTA ASEAN Free Trade Agreement

ADMM-Plus ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus AIIB Asian International Infrastructure Bank AMM ASEAN Ministerial Meetings

APEC Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ARF ASEAN Regional Forum

ASB Air-Sea Battle

ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEM Asia-Europe Meeting

BRI Belt and Road Initiatives BTA Bilateral Trade Agreement CIA Central Intelligence Agency CMC Central Military Commission CPC Communist Party of China DSG Defense Strategic Guidance DWP Defense White Paper EAS East Asia Summit

EDCA Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement FDI Foreign Direct Investment

GDP Gross Domestic Product IMF International Monetary Fund NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NSS National Security Strategy

NTR Normal Trade Relations PKI Partai Komunis Indonesia PLA People’s Liberation Army PRC People’s Republic of China

RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership SEAC Southeast Asia Command

SEATO Southeast Asia Treaty Organization SEZ Special Economic Zone

SFA Strategic Framework Agreement SOE State-Owned Enterprise

TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership

UN United Nations

UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea USAID U.S. Agency for International Development WTO World Trade Organization

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CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION

1.1 INTRODUCTION

After the demise of Mao Zedong in 1976, his successor, Deng Xiaoping began to implement new policies to reform China (Marti, 2002). He ended Mao’s Cultural Revolution and criticises its failure to bring any progress to the country. He then reformed China’s economy from being a state-planned economy into a market-based economy (Sung and Chan, 1987). As a result of this successful economic reform, now China’s economy has become the second largest economy in the world (Zhu, 2012).

This extraordinary success altered China’s fate in global politics. Armed with strong economy and good reputation, China started to emerge from being side-tracked by major powers such as the United States, Russia and European Union into becoming one of them (Ikenberry, 2008).

China began to modernise its military forces using its wealth. It was reported that China’s military spending will reach US$233 billion in 2020 (Petroff, 2016).

However, the amount is believed to be more than what was revealed by the Chinese government. It was also reported that vast amount of budget has been poured by the Chinese government to improve its military capability in order to strengthen its presence in various disputed territories all over the world (Art, 2010). China’s economic and military rise had caused a number of the International Relations scholars to predict the possibility that China aims to replace the United States’

dominance in the neighbouring regions in the future.

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According to Mearsheimer (2010), the rise of China will alter the status quo.

The position of the United States as a major power in the world will be challenged by the rising China. Zakaria (2008) predicted the end of the American era and the beginning of Pax Sinica should the United States fail to give a proper response to China’s rise. For the purpose of this research, this study is limited only to the Southeast Asian region. China’s increasing presence in Southeast Asia, by way of economic partnerships with ASEAN and the militarisation of South China Sea is seen as a direct challenge against the supremacy of the United States in this region. Thus, it becomes the main focus of this research to study the response of the United States with regards to the growing presence of China in Southeast Asia and how this situation will affect regional politics.

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

This research examines China’s increasing presence in Southeast Asian region and the response of the United States. Competition between two world powers, China and the United States will alter the status quo in this region and subsequently change the political landscape in this area. This competition might force small states in Southeast Asia to obstinately partake in an unprecedented political row between both powers.

Thus, this research attempts to uncover the consequences of rising Chinese power and its subsequent effects in Southeast Asian region.

Given the United States’ huge economic and strategic interests in Southeast Asia, the rise of China could result in the redefinition of the relationship between China and the United States with individual Southeast Asian states. As a result, the region may be divided into two blocs. The first bloc will remain as the fiercest supporter of the United States while the second bloc will prefer to associate

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themselves with the rising China. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the rise of China will lead to a competition or a cooperation between Washington and Beijing and how regional states would realign their foreign policies in light of this situation.

This research answers the following questions:

i) What are the main features of a rising China?

ii) Would the increasing China’s presence in Southeast Asian region affect the position of the United States in this region?

iii) What could be the consequences of China’s increasing presence towards Southeast Asian region?

Based on the above research questions, the arguments of this research are:

i) The rise of China will result in increasing China’s presence in Southeast Asian region for the purpose of securing its economic growth and territorial integrity against the United States and its allies.

ii) China’s increased presence in Southeast Asian region will result in an increasing attention by the United States to defend its position in this region.

iii) China’s increasing presence in Southeast Asia will result to closer relationship between the states in the region and China but at the same time, the same states will strengthen its existing affiliation with the United States to balance the influence of both powers.

1.3 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

This research will assist any interested persons to analyse the consequence of the rising influence of China in Southeast Asia. This change of situation will greatly impact the stability of this region. Since the United States can be seen as reluctant to

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leave Southeast Asia and reduce its presence in this region, the occurrence of a fresh conflict will be imminent. Both countries began to project their powers, economically and militarily to lure regional states to become their ally. As a result, small nations with limited military and economic capabilities will be trapped inside vigorous competition between both powers. Thus, analysis of the situation may postulate a better understanding on the nature of the competition of both powers in the region and in the future helps Southeast Asian states to decide on the most suitable policy to deal with China and the United States without losing independence or forced to be involved in unnecessary confrontation.

1.4 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

i) To discuss the characteristics of a rising China.

ii) To analyse the policies of the United States regarding the increasing China’s presence in Southeast Asian region.

iii) To examine the subsequent effects of China’s rising presence in Southeast Asian region.

1.5 LITERATURE REVIEW

The rise of China in Southeast and Northeast Asia inflicted mixed response from various parties. As can be seen later in this literature review, some of them perceived it as a peaceful rise while others waited nervously to find out the real consequences of this situation. Among the International Relations scholars, some of them doubted the peacefulness of China’s sudden rise. Challenging the status quo will not end without an incitement of violence between contending parties. The disturbance in the balance of power will result in the birth of a new tragedy in international politics. However, a

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number of scholars chose to remain optimist with regards to this sudden change of circumstances. A lot of literatures has been produced by scholars and practitioners to discuss this situation. Thus, this literature review will be comprised of (i) literatures dealing with China-United States relations in international politics and (ii) literatures dealing with the United States and ASEAN’s reaction with regards to the increase in China’s presence in Southeast Asian region.

(i) China-United States Relations in International Politics

The conflict between China and the United States has been prophesied long ago by a number of the United States political scientists. Huntington (1996) predicted that after the end of the Cold War, it is possible that a new rivalry will emerge between different civilisations. The Western civilisation, led by the United States sooner or later will clash with the Confucian civilisation led by China. Huntington saw that spectacular growth in China’s economy, coupled with China’s possession of nuclear weapons and its close relationship with rebellious Islamic countries will pose a considerable threat to the United States and the whole Western civilisation.

Zakaria (2008) repeated Huntington’s argument in light of the clash between China and the United States albeit not in a civilisational manner. He stressed that China’s successful economic development, diplomatic relations and military asymmetry strategies will be used to compete with the United States in the future.

Zakaria suggested that China, along with India, Brazil, Russia and others might overtake the United States in international politics if the United States fails to give proper attention to its unstoppable progress. Since there is no other capable contender against the United States post-Cold War era, the sudden rise of China might shock the country severely in the future.

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China’s perception of the United States is not desirable too. According to Yong (2001), after the end of Cold War, most Chinese citizens see the United States as a new hegemon. Without any contender in international politics, America began to disrespect the sovereignty of other countries. United States’ participation in Kosovo War in 1999, ruthless treatments towards unfriendly Iraqi and Yugoslavian regimes and unwanted interference in the issue of Taiwan made its reputation unfavourable amongst Chinese public and high-ranking officers. However, despite its bitter feelings against the United States, China decided to remain low and tried to avoid any direct confrontation with the United States. At the same time, China tried to strengthen its relationship with Russia as a measure to restrain the United States in international politics and to dilute claims on unipolarity until it is ready to challenge the status quo.

Leonard (2008) found that China, despite its claim on “Peaceful Rise” and

“Peace and Development” in its foreign policy, persistently tried to outdo the United States in international politics. Applying Deng Xiaoping’s slogan of ‘taoguang yanghui’ (bide our time and build our capabilities), China as a poor and weak country at that time should avoid conflicts with other states and concentrate only on its own economic development. Guided by this slogan, China’s strategists started to develop indirect methods to oppose the current hegemony of the United States. Using globalisation as a disguise, China applied Western derived concepts such as the idea of ‘soft power’, multilateralism and asymmetric war to reassert itself in international politics. China believes that direct confrontation via military forces is futile and other ways of ascending to power in international politics is needed to weaken the influence of the United States in world politics.

According to Kissinger (2012), he believes that China will restrain itself in international politics. His firm conviction is based on the statement of China’s State

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Councillor, Dai Bingguo in December 2010 that reiterated the commitment of the Chinese government to adhere to principles of ‘peaceful rise’ propounded by Deng Xiaoping and his successors. Dai Bingguo’s statement successfully silenced domestic nationalist voices that tried to persuade the Chinese government to change its peaceful development policy. Kissinger believed that the United States and China would prefer to cooperate with each other in the future because of their economic and strategic interdependence. Kissinger (2014) further argued that the principle of partnership should guide the United States-China relation in international politics. According to him, a partnership between the United States and China will give a better chance for both powers to build a peaceful future together. Kissinger asserted that unlike the Cold War, contemporary international conflicts should not be resolved by military force but through peaceful means and proper restraint by both the United States and China leadership in the spirit of partnership.

Regardless of peaceful guarantee given by Chinese leaders to the world, this will not halt China’s effort to acquire more power in international politics. Cardenal and Araujo (2013), reiterated that China’s ascent to power was carefully formulated in silence and secrecy. Cardenal and Araujo argued that China manipulates its economic power to lure support from poor countries all over the world. At the same time, China tried hard to build strong diplomatic relations with the governments of such countries by sponsoring most of their development programmes and assisting in building new facilities in their countries.

As mentioned above, it can be seen that a number of scholars predicted the rise of China in the future and its challenge towards the supremacy of the United States in international politics. However, not all scholars believed in the aggressive nature of

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China’s rise. Changing times had shown that cooperation and peaceful competition would bring more benefits to major powers than unnecessary wars and confrontation.

(ii) United States Reaction against China’s Increasing Presence in the Southeast Asian Region

This part of the literature review will focus on the reaction of the United States and other states regarding the rise of China and its increasing presence in international politics. Previously, China reiterated its stand to emerge peacefully in global politics.

However, would China’s remarkable economic growth induce the country to reverse its ‘peaceful rise’ principles and re-engineer its future foreign policy to adopt a more aggressive tone? If that is the case, how would other nations, especially those situated in Southeast Asia respond towards China’s policy change?

According to Mearsheimer (2010), the rise of China will not be without any retaliation from the United States. He predicts that China’s increasing influence among Asian nations will attempt to remove the United States out of Asia. Without the presence of the United States in this region, China might be able to reclaim its former glory in Asian history as the supreme power in the region before the arrival of the Western imperialists. This situation is undesirable to the United States. According to Mearsheimer (2010), this Cold War-like situation should be prevented by the United States to halt the regression of the current unipolar international system led by the United States into a multipolar system led by China and other newly emerged international powers.

Mearsheimer (2014) further explained how the anarchic situation in the international system might encourage China to challenge the status quo. Using its increasingly strong economy and powerful military, Mearsheimer believes that China

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will replicate the Monroe Doctrine as propounded by the United States in the 18^th and 19^th century. According to this doctrine, it is crucial for a future regional power to clear the respective regions from the presence of foreign influence. Mearsheimer argued that China’s present tendency to flex its military muscle toward its neighbours in Southeast Asia as one of the ways to diminish long-time United States’ influence in these regions and to solidify its position as a new major power in this part of the world.

Art (2010) argued that China’s remarkable economic growth is more than enough to replace the influence of the United States in Asia. As a result, China’s influence will spread beyond East Asia. In this case, it can be seen that as the nearest region next to China, Southeast Asia will be profoundly affected by this phenomenon.

China’s status as the second largest economy in the world will compel Southeast Asian states to forge a closer relationship with the country in order to secure future economic benefits from Chinese newfound wealth and prosperity.

Meanwhile, according to Jae (2010), the rise of China is not always perceived as hostile and aggressive. He found that most of the East Asian and Southeast Asian nations accept the rise of China with open arms. The leaders of these countries believe that the outstanding growth of China’s economy will bring prosperity to this region in the future. Closer economic relationship with China is expected to trigger faster development in their countries. Besides that, China is also seen as a new protector to autocratic East Asian states. States such as North Korea, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar are depended on China’s protection from the harassment of democratic states such as the United States and its allies.

According to Friedberg (2012), after the end of the Cold War, the United States started to lose its interest in its Southeast Asian allies. By neglecting its former

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Southeast Asian allies, the United States opened a clear path to China to increase its influence in this region. China began to increase its presence in this region via its participation in various economic partnerships and regional dialogues with ASEAN (Harris, 2014). This situation forced the United States to redirect its attention to Southeast Asia through the expansion of the original Trans-Pacific Partnership led by the country to include more Southeast Asian states and the initiation of Pivot to Asia policy by President Barack Obama (Harris, 2014).

Womack (2004) found that the proper relationship between China and Southeast Asian states has been forged long since the beginning of 1979. This successful diplomatic relationship came in two levels. The first level commenced after the occupation of Cambodia by Vietnam and the second level commenced after the normalisation process of Sino-Vietnamese relationship in 1991. These two levels of diplomatic process have opened more doors towards closer economic and political ties in the future. However, Womack also found that any aggressive policy taken by China in this region will easily shatter good relations between the country and Southeast Asian states.

In Mahbubani and Sng (2017), the authors explained that there are three essential phases of China-ASEAN relations since 1967. The history of this relationship can be divided into three phases: firstly, an initial phase of hostility;

secondly, a phase of “falling in love”, and thirdly, a phase of uncertainty. In the beginning, the establishment of ASEAN was opposed by the Chinese government.

ASEAN was accused of becoming the tool of the United States to contain its influence in Southeast Asian region under the disguise of “economic cooperation.” However, after the fall out between China and the Soviet Union in 1969, China begins to initiate a closer relationship with its southern neighbour. This sudden change was the result of

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China’s and the United States’ joint effort to end the Soviet Union’s influence in this region. Various economic agreements between both parties were successfully negotiated and signed during this phase. The third phase began in 2012. China’s consistent pressure to exclude the issue of South China Sea’s dispute from being discussed in ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting began to shatter decades of close relationship between these two parties and threw the relations between these countries into a state of uncertainty (Mahbubani and Sng, 2017).

Collins (2000) highlighted that the dispute in the South China Sea will be the main source of future conflict between China and Southeast Asian states. China’s claims to South China Sea overlapped with the claims made by Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. Thus, military forces are dispatched by these countries to South China Sea to strengthen their claim. The projection of power through increasing military presence in the area resulted into an arms race between claimants. Troops from China, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei started to assemble in this area. This might cause the escalation of petty border disputes into bitter conflicts between these countries.

According to Thayer (2016), the dispute in the South China Sea is attracting the attention of the United States. Increasing militarisation in the area in dispute by China’s People’s Liberation Army resulted in the initiation of the right of Freedom of Navigation Operational Patrols (FONOP) by the United States. The United States claims that its naval forces have the right to navigate the sea according to the law under the United Nations Charter of the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS). The United States believes that the presence of its army in the South China Sea will halt further militarisation of the area and consequently weakened China’s claim. Japan, the United

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States long-time ally in East Asia also participated in this dispute by giving financial and military support to some of the claimants such as the Philippines and Vietnam.

Cumings (2009) anticipated more positive views towards China. He blamed the United States government for its negative opinion of China. Cumings argued that China’s rise should not be demonised and the United States’ government must be ready to build a closer relationship with this country for the benefit of the whole world. Besides, he argued that since the United States is still trapped in the Cold War mentality, it failed to see beyond the ‘realist’ framework. United States’ measures to contain China by opening military bases in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Hawaii might force China to react with almost similar measures. Thus, it can be seen that the so-called ‘threat’ from China originated from the United States’ unnecessary fear and its distorted worldview derived from the Cold War era.

This research is conducted to examine the effects of the rising Chinese influence specifically in the Southeast Asian region. Previously, studies on the impacts of the rising Chinese influence are more concentrated to East Asia. Now, since China’s capability to exert its influence is growing in Southeast Asia, a proper study regarding this phenomenon is needed in order to assess the impact of this event and how it would change Southeast Asian regional politics in the future.

1.6 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

This research was constructed based on the theory of ‘offensive realism’, a theory propounded by prominent structural realism scholar, John J. Mearsheimer (2001).

According to Mearsheimer, the primary purpose of a state is to ensure its survival in an anarchic international system. For that reason, it is essential for a state to acquire maximum power at the expense of other states. In his book, The Tragedy of Great

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Power Politics, Mearsheimer challenged the argument of the prominent structural realist, Kenneth Waltz (1979) who emphasises that states must acquire just enough power to maintain equilibrium and balance of power in international politics. Contrary to Waltz, Mearsheimer believes that only by becoming a hegemon, the security of a state will be guaranteed and any future challenge towards the status quo will be deterred. He refused to accept the views of defensive realists led by Waltz by asserting that power should not be used as the means to achieve the interest of the state. Instead, power should be the end and sole interest of the state.

However, despite his belief in the supremacy of acquiring maximum power in international politics, Mearsheimer admitted that it is impossible to become a global hegemon. The difficulty in projecting military prowess all over the globe coupled with limited resources possessed by a state might halt this global-scale ambition. Thus, he argued that instead of struggling to become a global hegemon, a state might give its best effort to become a regional hegemon. Mearsheimer cited the United States as the best example for his argument. The United States is successful to dominate the American continent from the influence of European powers since a hundred years ago (Mearsheimer, 2001). Mearsheimer (2010) argued that after the United States had successfully expelled European colonial powers from the New World, the country then proceeded to become the sole hegemon in the region until today.

This research is meant to study how the rise of China will change the policy of the country from a ‘peaceful rise’ into a more aggressive one. As stated by Mearsheimer (2010), if a state can acquire more power, the state will never hesitate to change its behaviour. Now, the remarkable development of China’s economy and comprehensive modernisation process of its military capabilities changed the opinions of scholars and experts about the emergence of ‘peaceful’ China. China, having

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equipped with a strong economy coupled with a powerful military, it is logical to expect that its foreign policy might change from being a passive actor into an active participant in international politics. Besides, it was predicted by Mearsheimer (2010) that China might replicate the application of the Monroe Doctrine in Southeast Asia.

Since there is a heavy presence of the United States in this region, China will do everything that it can to chase out the United States from its ‘backyard.’ By eliminating other potential contenders in Southeast Asia, China will be able to achieve its ambition to dominate this region.

How can a state increase its powers in specific regions and shifted the balance of power in favour of it? The answer is by massively developing its (1) economy, (2) military capabilities and (3) diplomatic relations (Mearsheimer, 2014). In fact, all of these have been actively pursued by China in recent years. Thus, it is the focus of this research to investigate about China’s remarkable rise in these three aspects and whether China may or may not have the capability to substitute the United States as the most dominant power in the Southeast Asian region. At the same time, the same indicators will be used to analyse the capability of the United States to preserve its position in this region against the rising China.

Friedberg (2012) wrote that, since the dawn of the 1949’s Chinese Communist Revolution, there are three types of reactions applied by the United States in dealing with China. After the revolution, the United States began to contain China. The United States’ administration refused to recognise the new Communist government under Mao Zedong leadership. The United States preferred to throw their support to Chiang Kai-Shek, the Chinese nationalist leader who retreated to the island of Taiwan after the Communists defeated his government. The anti-communist sentiment is believed to be the main factor for this reaction. The economic sanction was announced, and