Climate Change and Rice Production
Tran Dang Hoa
Faculty of Agronomy
Hue University of Agriculture and Forestry
Vietnam
• 4 millions ha
• Main regions:
- Red river delta - Central
- Mekong delta
Climate Change Effects Relevant for Rice
Production
Climate change in Vietnam
Sea level rises 2.5-3 cm/ 10
years in the last century
Vietnam sea level rise (SLR, cm) as compared with 1980-1999
Scenarios Emission 2020 2050 2100
B1 Low 11 28 65
B2 Medium 12 30 75
A2 High 12 33 100
Red river delta: land area will be under water if sea level rise of 1m
Mekong river delta: land area will be under water if
sea level rise of 1m
21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.0
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
2 1
3 4
OC
Year
Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of
Temperature at A Luoi station.
Annual temperature
Average temperature increase 0.10C/10 years.
Average temperature of some months in summer is increase 0.1- 0.30C/ 10 years.
Temperature increase
Vietnam Temperature increased as compared with 1980-1999
Scenarios T(0C) 2020 2050 2100
A2 High
Increase
0.5 1.5 2.8
B1 Low
Increase
0.3 0.8 1.6
• Rainfall is decrease in dry season, but increase in raining season.
• Heavy raining
causes strong flood frequently
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
2 1
3 4
mm
Year
Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of
August-December rainfall at A Luoi station.
Rainfall of Aug.-Dec.
• Typhoon - Non rule
- moves to the south.
• Climate change mitigation is any action taken to
permanently eliminate or reduce the long-term risk and hazards of climate change to human life or property
• Climate change adaptation refers to the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.
Action plan on rice production
Mitigation/Adaptation
GHG from Agriculture
2050 , GHG from agriculture will be
increased 30%
FAO, April 11, 2014
Mitigation
• Agriculture causes about 25 % global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, 65-70 % of CH4, and 90 % of N2O emissions
• Rice paddies contributing about 12% to global CH4 emissions (second largest after cattle livestock)
• Global Warming Potential (GWP):
CH4 – 25 times higher than CO2 N2O – 298 times higher than CO2
Climate Change Mitigation within the rice
agricultural sector
http://www.ibp.ethz.ch (modified)
• Rice varieties
• Fertilizer
• Water
management
GHG from Agriculture sectors in Vietnam (MONRE, 2000)
CO2 Equ (MT) %
Rice Field 37.4 57.5
Live stock
( Fermentation &Manure)
11.1 17.2
Soils 14.2 21.8
Burning field 0.59 0.9
Crops Residues Burning 1.70 2.6
Total 100
Quang Nam province LUCCi project
6 seasons 2010 - 2013 Hue province MIRSA project 2014
GHG experiments on paddy fields
PI to complete flowering
grain
filling Maturity Late
tillering Early
tillering transp
recovery
Field water depth (Cm)
-10 -5 0
5
2.5 10-20 -15
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
CF
soil surface
AWD
DAT flowering
Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD)
Safe AWD: - 15 cm
Site-specific nutrient management
A standardized leaf color chart (LCC)
• Applying nutrients as and when needed
• Adjusting nutrient application to crop needs in given
location and season
GC: SRI 8610C Gas analysis
GC setting, 2011
a a a a
0 2 4 6
Nam Phuoc Dai Loc
Yield ton ha-1
Summer – Autumn 2011
CF AWD
a a a a
0 2 4 6
Nam Phuoc Dai Loc
Yield ton ha -1
Winter - Spring 2011 - 2012
CF AWD
No difference in yield of different water management practices
LUCCi project
41.9%
reduction 44.3%
reduction
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Summer - Autumn 2011
Winter - Spring 2011 - 2012
GMP ton ha-1 CF AWD
33.6 % reduction
31 % reduction
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Summer - Autumn 2011
Winter - Spring 2011 - 2012
GWP ton ha -1
CF AWD
Dai Loc Nam Phuoc
Global Warm Potential
Yield (ton/ha)
b b
a
A A A
0 2 4 6 8 10
CF ADW AWDS
Treatment
ton ha-1 Potential yield Grain yield
MIRSA project
Methane fluxes
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
CF AWD AWDS
CH4 mg m-2 d-1
-250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Daily average water level (mm)
DAS
Nitrous oxide fluxes
2.40 3.40 4.40 5.40 6.40 7.40 8.40
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
CF AWD AWDS
MDL
N2O mg m-2 d-1
N applied N applied
-250 -200 -150 -100 100 150 -50 50 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Daily average water level (mm)
DAS
CH4
5 105 205 305 405 505 605
CF AWD AWDS
CH4 kg ha-1
22% reduction 15% reduction 104 days
2.50 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00
CF AWD AWDS
N2O kg ha-1
MDL
104 days
N2O
Seasonal cumulative gas emission
Aerobic rice system
Treat rice like any other (irrigated) crop:
No puddling, no standing water, aerobic soil
Adaptation: IRRI projects
Salinity tolerance variety
Cropping System & Management in coastal zones
Calendar Wat Mgt Wat Source
Calendar Wat Mgt Wat Source
Calendar 1 Calendar 2
= Land preparation
Grav Irrig = gravity irrigation P Irrig = Pump irrigation St Wa = Stored Water No
salinity control
Main season rainfed rice Brackish water Shrimp Main season rainfed rice Salinity
control + irrigation
water
Salinity control;
no irrigation
water
Summer Autumn Autumn Winter
Salinity Salinity
Winter Spring Summer Autumn Autumn Winter
P irri
River Wat St W St W
Grav IrriPump Irrigation
River water Rver+St Wat
River W
Rainfed Grav Irrig
Leaching Rainfed Grav Irrig P Irr
Salinity
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Saline period Low/non-saline
Prepar ation
Shrimp
Leaching
Rice
Wat Stor
Leaf, tiller and root development
Panicle development
Grain filling Pollination
LOW HIGH MEDIUM
Sensitivity to Heat Stress
MINIMUM MAXIMUM
0 10 20 30 40 50
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Vegetative
Flowering Grain Filling
Temperature(o C)
Rice Crop
Seasonal calendar
Conclusion
Climate Change Mitigation:
Rice systems have to become more efficient in terms of…
• Water use
• Fertilizer uptake
• Harvest index
Adaptation:
Rice systems have to become more resilient to…
• Drought
• Submergence
• Salinity
• Heat waves
By
• Germplasm development
• Crop management
• Cropping system
• Resource management and Structures
QUESTION to Restructure Program
Sources Measures Need
- Too much water used for rice
- Too low efficiency of
inputs (fertilizers, pesticides,
waters)
- Soil degradation - Low C-soil sink - Increase GHG
- Saving water=> precision irrigation system
- Changes the way of rice cultivation (less input. less w a t e r u s e s . = > h i g h efficiency.)
- Re-use rice/ crop residues;
mulching/ Bio-char/ Min tillage
- Added values for all agriculture products & by products
- N e w
Technology
- New behaviors - P r e c i s i o n agriculture
- C-sequence
- Low
comparative productivity - Uncertainly income
- Replace Rice by other crops with reversible ways
- Added values for all Rice products & by products
- New
techniques?
- Multiple cropping
- Investment - New
Marketing Approach
- Sea level rise
- Weather uncertainty - Salinity - Drought/
- Flooding - Heat/cool
- Physical and biological ways
- Inter-field damps - Multiple cropping - Mixed cropping
- Modelling
- New behaviors - Good
prediction - Good
investment design
- Useful
Information/data