CLIMATE CHANGE EXPLORATION ASAJAYA SCHEME

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CLIMATE CHANGE EXPLORATION ASAJAYA SCHEME

Norpatimah Binti Matden

Bachelor of Engineering with Honours (Civil Engineering)

2010

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UNIVERSITI MALAYSIA SARAWAK

R13a BORANG PENGESAHAN STATUS TESIS

Judul: CLIMATE CHANGE EXPLORATION IN ASAJAYA SCHEME

SESI PENGAJIAN: 2009/2010

Saya NORPATIMAH BINTI MATDEN

(HURUF BESAR)

mengaku membenarkan tesis * ini disimpan di Pusat Khidmat Maklumat Akademik, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak dengan syarat-syarat kegunaan seperti berikut:

1. Tesis adalah hakmilik Universiti Malaysia Sarawak.

2. Pusat Khidmat Maklumat Akademik, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak dibenarkan membuat salinan untuk tujuan pengajian sahaja.

3. Membuat pendigitan untuk membangunkan Pangkalan Data Kandungan Tempatan.

4. Pusat Khidmat Maklumat Akademik, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak dibenarkan membuat salinan tesis ini sebagai bahan pertukaran antara institusi pengajian tinggi.

5. ** Sila tandakan ( ) di kotak yang berkenaan

SULIT (Mengandungi maklumat yang berdarjah keselamatan atau kepentingan Malaysia seperti yang termaktub di dalam AKTA RAHSIA RASMI 1972).

TERHAD (Mengandungi maklumat TERHAD yang telah ditentukan oleh organisasi/

badan di mana penyelidikan dijalankan).

TIDAK TERHAD

Disahkan oleh

(TANDATANGAN PENULIS) (TANDATANGAN PENYELIA)

Alamat tetap: NO 57, KG MELAYU BALAI

RINGIN, 94700 SERIAN, SARAWAK. MDM NORAZLINA BT BATENI Nama Penyelia

Tarikh: Tarikh:

CATATAN * Tesis dimaksudkan sebagai tesis bagi Ijazah Doktor Falsafah, Sarjana dan Sarjana Muda.

** Jika tesis ini SULIT atau TERHAD, sila lampirkan surat daripada pihak berkuasa/organisasi berkenaan dengan menyatakan sekali sebab dan tempoh tesis ini perlu dikelaskan sebagai SULIT dan TERHAD.

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i The following Final Year Project Report:

Title : CLIMATE CHANGE EXPLORATION IN ASAJAYA SCHEME Name : NORPATIMAH BINTI MATDEN

Matric No. : 16949

has been read and approved by:

__________________________________ _____________

MDM NORAZLINA BINTI BATENI Date Project Supervisor

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ii CLIMATE CHANGE EXPLORATION IN ASAJAYA SCHEME

NORPATIMAH BINTI MATDEN

A report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the awards of the degree of Bachelor Degree with Honours

(Civil Engineering) 2010

Faculty of Engineering

UNIVERSITI MALAYSIA SARAWAK 2010

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iii To my beloved parent, family and friends

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iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

First and foremost, thanks to Allah, the most gracious, and the most merciful who has enabled me to complete my Final Year Project. Secondly, I would like to express my sincere appreciation to my supervisors, Mdm. Norazlina binti Bateni for her kind help in giving a valuable suggestion, guidance and continuous encouragement throughout the entire study.

My sincere appreciation also extends to Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID), IADA Samarahan, Department of Agriculture (Soils Management), Sarawak and Malaysian Meteorological Services (MMS) for providing the data and their willingness to give information about this project.

Last but not least, it is my pleasure to acknowledge my family and friends, who are always being supportive and had been motivated me a lot during the completion of this Final Year Project. Their hope and encouragement had inspired me a lot to finish up this project.

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vii TABLE OF CONTENTS

CONTENTS PAGES

Acknowledgement iv

Abstrak v

Abstracts vi

Table of Contents vii

List of Tables xi

List of Figures xii

List of Abbreviations xiii

List of Symbols xiv

List of Appendix xv

Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 General 1

1.2 Problem of Statement 3

1.2.1 Study Area 4

1.3 Objectives of Study 7

1.4 Scope of Study 7

1.5 Significance Of Research 9

Chapter 2 LITERATURE REVIEW

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viii

2.1 Introduction 10

2.1.1 Climate 11

2.1.1.1 Air Pressure and Wind 12

2.1.1.2 Rainfall 15

2.1.1.3 Evaporation 17

2.1.1.4 Temperature 20

2.1.1.5 Humidity 22

2.1.1.6 Radiation and Sunshine 22

2.1.2 Water Resources 23

2.1.2.1 Water Demand 24

2.1.2.2 Watershed 26

2.1.2.3 Water Resources Changes 28

2.1.2.4 Water Sustainability 30

2.1.3 Irrigation and Drainage 31

2.2 Climate and Water Cycles 33

2.3 Climate Change 35

2.4 Causes of Climate Change 36

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2.4.1 Greenhouse Effect 37

2.4.2 Extreme Weather 38

2.5 Effect of Climate Change 40

2.5.1 Sea Level Rise 41

2.5.2 Flood and Drought 42

2.5.2.1 Occurrence of Flood Events 43 2.5.2.2 Occurrence of Drought Events 46

2.5.3 Soil Fertility and Erosion 47

2.5.4 Effect on Water System 50

Chapter 3 METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction 52

3.2 Weather Condition Analysis 55

3.3 Changes in Precipitation with Rainfall Analysis 55 3.4 Temperature, Sunshine and Evaporation Analysis 56

3.5 Changes in Soil Moisture 57

3.6 Changes in Runoff: Floods and Droughts 57

Chapter 4 RESULTS, ANALYSIS & DISCUSSIONS

4.1 Introduction 59

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x

4.2 Data Collection 60

4.3 Results of Changes in Precipitation Analysis 63 4.4 Results of Temperature, Sunshine & Evaporation Analysis 68 4.5 Results of Changes in Soil Moisture Analysis 76 4.6 Results of Changes in Runoff: Flood & Drought Analysis 77

Chapter 5 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Introduction 81

5.2 Conclusion 81

5.3 Recommendations 83

REFERENCES 85

APPENDIX 90

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xi LIST OF TABLES

TABLE DESCRIPTIONS PAGE

Table 4.1 Weather Condition Data for Samarahan- Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia

61

Table 4.2 Mean Monthly Rainfalls Data in the Asajaya Scheme

65

Table 4.3 Mean Monthly Temperature Data (ºC) 69

Table 4.4 Mean Monthly Sunshine Data (Hour) 72

Table 4.5 Table 4.6

Mean Monthly Evaporation Data (mm) Mean Monthly Rainfall, Temperature, and Model Runoff Data

74 79

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xii LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE DESCRIPTIONS PAGE

Figure 1.1 Location of study area, Asajaya Scheme 6 Figure 2.1 Mean January (a) and July (b) temperatures

(degree Fahrenheit) for the world

21 Figure 2.2 Watersheds (Conservation Technology

Information Center

26 Figure 2.3 Watersheds (U.S. Environmental Protection

Agency)

27 Figure 2.4

Figure 3.1 Figure 4.1 Figure 4.2 Figure 4.3 Figure 4.4 Figure 4.5 Figure 4.6

Hydrologic Cycle

Summary of research methodology

Generally Mean Monthly Weather Conditions at Samarahan-Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia

Variation in Asajaya Scheme Mean Monthly Rainfalls for Different Years

Variations in Temperature of Kuching Airport Station for Different Months of Different Years Variations in Sunshine of Kuching Airport Station for Different Months of Different Years Variations in Evaporation of Kuching Airport Station for Different Months of Different Years Illustrating Mean Monthly Rainfall,

Temperature, and Model Runoff

34 54 62 67 71 73 75 80

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xiii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

CTIC Conservation Technology Information Center CO2 CarbonDioxide

DID Department of Irrigation and Drainage ENSO El-Nino South Oscillation

ET Evapotranspiration

GCM General Circulation Model IDF Intensity-Duration-Frequency

IPCC Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change

Lat Latitude

Long Longitude

MHIP Malaysian International Hydrological Programme MMS Malaysia Meteorological Services

SAC Special Areas of Conservation SWIM Soil and Water Integrated Model WMO World Meteorological Organisation

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xiv LIST OF SYMBOLS

ºC Degree Celsius

ºF Fahrenheit

E Evaporation

P Precipitation

R Runoff

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xv LIST OF APPENDIX

APPENDIX DESCRIPTIONS PAGE

A Records of Monthly Mean Surface Air Temperature

90 B Records of Mean, Highest, Lowest of Monthly

and Annual Rainfall and Raindays

91

C Records of Monthly Mean Surface Wind 92

D Records of Temperature and Relative Humidity 93 E

F G

Records of Monthly Mean Sunshine Hours Records of Monthly Mean Solar Radiation

Records of Monthly Total Evaporation 94 95 96 H Records of Monthly Maximum Surface Wind 97

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v ABSTRAK

Kebelakangan ini, meningkatnya kesedaran tentang isu persekitaran telah melahirkan idea keberlanjutan, di mana aliran sungai dikawal untuk mengekalkan keseimbangan antara ketersediaan dan penggunaan sumber air tersebut. Perubahan iklim bumi mempunyai kesan langsung pada kitaran hidrologi global dan seterusnya ke atas air. Meningkatnya suhu boleh memburukkan keadaan kekurangan air yang sedia ada, menjejaskan kualiti air atau meningkatkan frekuensi dan intensiti banjir dan kemarau.

Oleh kerana itu, kesan-kesan daripada perubahan sumber air cenderung mempengaruhi pembangunan sosial dan ekonomi di sesebuah negara. Sumber air adalah salah satu isu yang diberi keutamaan terhadap kesan perubahan iklim dan adaptasi di Malaysia. Untuk mendapatkan kesinambungan air, para penganalisa harus membayangkan bagaimana iklim berinteraksi dengan pelbagai aspek dari kitaran air. Dalam kajian ini, catatan sejarah purata meteorologi data dalam jangka masa yang panjang dianalisis bagi meninjau kesan yang mungkin timbul di Asajaya Skim ini. Keputusan daripada analisis menunjukkan bahawa Skim ini tidak terkecuali dari kesan buruk dari perubahan iklim.

Dengan demikian dapat disimpulkan bahawa Skim Asajaya harus mempertimbangkan kemungkinan kesan perubahan cuaca untuk perancangan yang berterusan dan pengurusan untuk kestabilan sumber dan tanaman dalam Skim untuk masa hadapan.

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vi ABSTRACT

Nowadays, increasing awareness of environmental issue has led to the idea of sustainability, in which a watershed is controlled to maintain a balance between the availability and the use of it resources. Changes to the earth’s climate have a direct effect on the global hydrological cycle and hence on water. The rise of temperatures may exacerbate existing water shortages, impair water quality or enhance the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts. Hence, these effects of changes in water resources are likely to affect social and economic development in a country. Water resources are one of the priority issues with respect to climate change impacts and adaptation in Malaysia.

To obtain water sustainability, the planners must envisage how climate interacts with various aspects of the water cycle. In this study, the long-term recorded average historic meteorological data are analyzed to explore the possible impact in Asajaya Scheme. The results of the analyses show that this Scheme is not free from the adverse effect of climate change. Thus it can be concluded that the Asajaya Scheme will have to consider the possible impact of climate change for the sustainable planning and management of stable resources and cropping in the Scheme in the near future.

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CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 General

Nowadays, we are on the verge of changing our earth‟s climate as a result of human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, destruction of forest, and a wide range of industrial and agriculture activities. Scientifically, the average temperature of the earth‟s surface is rising through the increased of concentration of carbon dioxide and other green house gases in the atmosphere because of human activities (1PCC 2001). Due to awareness of environmental issues, sustainability is important, in which a watershed is controlled to maintain a balance between the availability and the use of it resources.

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Climate change will lead to an intensification of global hydrological cycle and can have major impacts on regional water resources, affecting both ground and surface water supply for domestic and industrial uses, irrigation, hydropower generation, navigation, in-stream ecosystems and water-based recreation. Besides, changes in the total amount of precipitation and its frequency intensity, directly affect the magnitude and timing of runoff and the intensity of floods and drought; however, at present, specific regional affects are uncertain (IPCC 2001).

Climatic change has a direct effect on hydrology through its link with evapotranspiration. The scenarios of changes in atmospheric variables, effect surface and subsurface hydrology, such as temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration are component to assess the potential effects of predicted climatic change on water resources. They are various hydrologic models have been used to explore the possible impact of climate change scenarios. This study will explore the possible climate change in the scheme through analyzing the long-term recorded monthly average historic meteorological data. Moreover, it also discusses the investigation of water sustainability and how climate interacts with variables aspects of water cycle.

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3 1.2 Problem Statement

Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges today. Increasing evidence of present such as greenhouse gasses, global surface temperature, and extreme weather give significant impacts of climate change on health, agriculture, and water resources.

According to Rotary Club of Kuching Central report 2004, due to the occurrence of unrelenting heavy rain, which coincided with high tide, more areas in Sarawak especially in the state‟s central region, comprising Sibu, Bintulu, Kuching, Samarahan and Sri Aman divisions recently encountered one of the worst flooding in years. This is because the excessive waters caused rivers and waterways to swell and overflow. As a consequence, there was widespread flooding in the low-lying areas. The flooding resulted in sufferings and difficulties to many people in the towns as well as in the rural areas. At the height of the flooding, more than 10 thousand people, especially those in rural areas were evacuated to higher grounds and sheltered in relief centers. The flood situation left behind a trail of destruction across vast areas in Kuching and surrounding areas. There was widespread electricity blackout and many villages were under several meters of water, a few major roads were cut off while others were choked with massive traffic jams, farmlands were destroyed, 121 schools were closed, many houses and bridges were damaged or destroyed due to landslides or being swept away by swift currents. A number of fatalities were

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reported due to landslide or drowning. Outside of Kuching, the worse affected areas were the Samarahan Division and Bau District. In the Asajaya District in Samarahan, floodwater inundated thousand of homes with water level reaching in excess of 6 feet in certain areas. Six families lost their homes due to landslide and swift water current.

How climate change will affect water resources is the most importance issue for the region. Therefore, interpreting how a water resources system might perform given the hydrologic conditions that would accompany and climate change scenario will virtually always require modeling of water resources system. This study provides understanding of climate change and its implication for various aspects of the water cycle. Climate change will alter water availability, water demand and water quality. In this study long term recorded monthly average historic meteorological data such as temperature, rainfall, precipitation, humidity etc. are analyzed to explore potential impact of climate change in the Scheme.

1.2.1 Study Area

The Asajaya Drainage Scheme (Figure 1.1), located between South China Sea in the north, Batang Samarahan in the east in Samarahan Division, Sarawak. Total areas for Asajaya Drainage Scheme are 17087 Hectares where the land utilization is about 81% which the overall area of planted is 13853ha.

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The climate here is classified as tropical rain forest type characterized by its high temperature and high rainfall. Abundant rainfall of about 3,830 mm is recorded annually. The annual average runoff is about 2460 mm or 306 billion cubic meters. Nevertheless, it is divided within a year into two seasons, namely, wet and dry seasons due to the influence of two monsoon winds, North-East monsoon from November to March and Southwest monsoon from May to September. Although mean yearly rainfall is abundant in this region, it is not evenly distributed in terms of time and area.

Nowadays, Asajaya is the one of under the development area in Sarawak. For that, development is not possible without water. Because of the strong water and development linkage, monitoring the sustainability of resources can effectively provide an indication of sustainable development in a country.

One of the major water issues affecting sustainable development in Malaysia is climate changes. Water resource availability is depending on the process of evapotranspiration within the water cycle.

The scheme project begins in 1969 and completed in 1988. Now, the operation and maintenance of the scheme are under Drainage and Irrigation, Asajaya.The objectives of the project are, to prevent sea-water inundation, to reduce flooding, to prepare the land for agricultural production and improve yields and to uplift socio-economic conditions. The seven main rivers in the

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scheme are Batang Samarahan, Sungai Moyan, Sungai Asajaya, Sungai Sampun, Sungai Semera, Sungai Jemukan, and Batang Sadong. The main physical facilities constructed are 22 tidal control gates, 6 tidal control flap gates and river-bank protection structures.

Figure 1.1: Location of study area, Asajaya Scheme.

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