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4
of
THE INFLUENCE OF PERCEPTION OF RISKS OF
INTERNATIONAL TOURISTS' VISITING JORDAN AND THEIR
FUTURE BEHAVIOUR INTENTION
WAZERAH SULIMAN AL-TARAWNEH
1
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
UNIVERSITI UTARA MALAYSIA2020
THE INFLUENCE OF PERCEPTION OF RISKS OF
INTERNATIONAL TOURISTS' VISITING JORDAN AND THEIR FUTURE BEHAVIOUR INTENTION
WAZERAH SULIMAN AL-TARAWNEH
A thesis submitted to the Ghazali Shafie Graduate School of Government in fulfillment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy/Doctor of
Management Universiti Utara Malaysia
Kolej Undang-Undang, Kerajaan dan Pengajian Antarabangsa (College of Law, Government and International Studies)
UNIVERSITI UTARA MALAYSIA
PERAKUAN KERJA TESIS I DISERTASI (Certification of thesis / dissertation)
Kami, yang bertandatangan, memperakukan behave (We, the undersigned, certify that)
WAZERAH SULAIMAN AARUHMAN ALTARAWNEH (96025)
I I
colon untuk Ijazah
(candidate for the degree of)
Ph.D
telah mengemukakan tests / disertasi yang bertajuk:
(has presented his/her thesis / dissertation of the following tide):
k
THE INFLUENCE OF PERCEPTION OF RISKS OF iNTERNATiONALTOURiSTS' vlsmnG JORDAN AND THEIR FUT TIRE BE IOUR INTENTION Y
or
seperti yang tercatat di muka Surat tajuk an kuwait tests / disertasi.
(as it appears on the title page and front cover of the thesis / dissertation).
Pengerusi Viva (Chairman for Viva) Pemeriksa Luar (External Examiner) Pemeriksa Dal am (Internal Examined
Behave tesisldisertasi tersebut bole diterima dari segi bentuk Serta kandungan dan meliputi bidang ilmu dengan memuaskan, sebagaimana yang ditunjukkan oleh catorn dalam fijian lisan yang diadakan pads 6 Mei 2020
That the said thesis/dissertation is acceptable in form and content and displays a satisfactory knowledge of the field of study as demonstrated by the candidate through an oral examination held on May 6, 2020
PROF. DR. AZILAH KASIM
PROF. DR. ZAINAB KHALIFAH
ASSOC. PROF. DR.
NURHAZANI MOHD SHARIFF
Tandatangan (Signature) Tandatangan (Signature) Tandatangan
Signature)
l
/'
1 _ n fr
Tadkh Date
6 Mei 2020
Nama Pelajar (Name of Student)
WAZERAH SU LAIMAN AARUHMAN ALTARAWNEH (96025)
Tajuk Tests (Title of the Thesis)
THE INFLUENCE OF PERCEPTION OF RISKS OF INTERNATIONAL TOURISTS' VISITING JORDAN AND THEIR FUTURE BEHAVIOUR INTENTION
Program Pengajian (Proqramrrre of Study)
PfLD
Penyelia Pertama (First Supervisor) Penyelia Kedua (Second Super/isor)
DR. HAMIMl OMAR ASSOC. PROF. DR.
SHAHARUDUIN TAHIR
Tandatangan (Signature) , Tandatang-an "
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Universiti U t a r a Malaysia
PERMISSION TO USE
In presenting this thesis in partial iUlfilment of the requirements for a post degree from Universiti Utara Malaysia, I agree that the Universiti Library may make it freely available for inspection. I further agree that permission for the copying of this thesis in any manner either in whole or in part, for scholarly purpose may be granted by my supervisors or in their absence, by the Dean of Ghazali Shafie Graduate School of Government, College of Law, Government and International Studies (COLGIS). It is understood that any copying or publication or use of this thesis or parts thereof for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. It is also understood that due recognition shall be given to me and to Universiti Utara Malaysia for any scholarly use which may be made of any material from my dissertation.
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Universiti Utara Malaysia 06010 UUM Sintok Ked ah Darul Aman
ABSTRACT
Tourism caters to those who are looking for adventure and discovering new places. The development of the tourism industry not only supports the local culture but also generates revenues for various tourism destinations. However, the risks surrounding these destinations, particularly those in areas known for political instability and terrorism, may negatively affect their tourism industry. In Jordan, the sharp decrease in the number of tourist arrivals, due to its location in a conflict-ridden area, has prompted an urgent need to identify factors shaping the perception of risks of the international tourists. These factors were evaluated during the actual travel experiences of tourists visiting Jordan.
Consequently, the tourists' satisfaction was measured by the discrepancy between perceptions and actual travel experience, which influenced their future behavioural intentions. To achieve this objective, Expectation-Confirmation was employed as the theoretical basis for this study. The conceptual model described the influence of factors shaping the tourists' perception of risks, in order to measure their actual travel experiences, satisfaction, and furore intentions. A quantitative approach using the questionnaire technique was applied to examine this model. Using an area sampling technique, 450 questionnaires were distributed amongst international tourists who visited Jordan, specifically Petra, Madaba and Jerash. From the responses, 440 were usable. The survey data were then analysed by using Structural Equation Modelling. The findings indicate that those factors shaping perception of risks have a direct and statistically significant effect on the actual travel experiences of tourists but have an insignificant effect on tourists' satisfaction. Importantly, actual travel experience has a direct and significant effect on revisit and word of mouth. Further, perception of risks has a significant effect on tourists' satisfaction through the mediating effect of actual travel experience of tourists. The findings also indicate that actual travel experience has a significant effect on revisit and word of mouth through the mediating effect of tourists' satisfaction. This study contributes new knowledge to the field of perception of risks in the Middle-East particularly, Jordan and may serve
as
a starting point for researchers interested to sandy in this area.Keywords: Perception of Risks, Actual Travel Experience, Tourist Furore Intentions, Tourism Crisis, Jordan
ABSTRAK
Pelancongan memenuhi keperluan mereka yang mencari pengalaman pengembaraan dan meneroka tempt barn. Pembangunan industri pelancomgan bunyan sahaja menyokong budaya tempatan tetapi jugs menghasilkan pendapatan kepada destinasi pelancongan tersebut. Walaubagaimanapun, terdapat risiko terhadap destinasi yang mengalami ketidakstabilan politik dan keganasan, yang boleh menjejaskan industTi pelancongan di destinasi in secara negative. Di Jordan, penurunan ketara dalam bilangan ketibaan pelancong, disebabkan lokasinya di kansan yang sedemikian, telah mendorong kepada keperluan mendesak unmk mengenali faktor-faktor yang membentuk persepsi risiko oleh pelancong antarabangsa untuk melancong. Faktor-faktor in dinilai semasa pengalaman perjalanan sebenar pelancong yang mengunjungi Jordan. Oleh i t , kepuasan para pelancong diukur oleh perbezaan antara persepsi dan pengalaman peljalanan yang sebenamya, yang mempengaMi r a t tingkah laky mereka di mass hadapan. Untuk mencapai objektif in, Expectation-Confrmation Theory telah digunapakai sebagai asas t e r i untuk kajar i i . Model konseptual kajar i i menunjukkan pengaruh faktor-faktor yang membentuk persepsi pelancong terhadap risiko dalam usaha untuk mengukur pengalaman sebenar perjalanan pelancong, kepuasan, dan mat mass depart mereka.
Pendekatan kuantitatif melalui teknik soalselidik telah digunakan untuk mengkaji model i i . Melalui teknik pensampelan kansan, 450 soalselidik telah diedarkan kepada pelancong antarabangsa yang melawat Jordan, khususnya Petra, Madaba dan Jerash.
Beradasarkan i i , sejumlah 440 soalselidik boleh digunakan data tinjauan kemudian dianalisis menggunakan Structural Equation Model. Hasil kajian menunjukkan behave faktor-faktor yang membentuk persepsi risiko mempunyai kesan langsung dan signifikan terhadap pengalaman sebenar perjalanan pelancong tetzapi mempunyai kesan yang tidak signifikan terhadap kepuasan pelancong. Paling penting, pengalaman sebenar perjalanan pelancong mempunyai kesan langsung dan signiflkan terhadap kedatangan semula dan hebahan secara mulut ke mulut. Sebaliknya, persepsi risiko mempunyai kesan yang signifikan terhadap kepuasan pelancong melalui kean medias pengalaman sebenar perjalanan pelancong. Dapatan kajar i i jugs menunjukkan behave pengalaman sebenar perjalanan pelancong mempunyai kesan yang signifikan terhadap kedatangan semula pelancong dan hebahan secara mulut ke mulut melalui kesan mediasi kepuasan pelancong. Kajian in menyumbang pengetahuan bam kepada bidang persepsi risiko di Timur Tengah terutamanya, Jordan dan boleh menjadi titik permulaan kepada penyelidik yang berminat untuk melakukan kajar di kawasaki in.
Kata kunci: Persepsi Risiko, Pengalaman Sebenqr Perjalanan, Niat Masa Depart Pelancong, Krisis Pelancongan, Jordan
ACIQQOWLEDGEMENT
"£My Lord increase me in /Qnowfedge. " (Talia 114)
Q-"irst andjbremost praise is to ARE, who gives me ortunity, determination, and strength to db my search.
Tor my JaaN.; spin't; lie was always my companion on t/iis top, Ifeli Him fishing my Hamlin my griefancfl saw /his Happiness in my successes.
'For my mom's tear.; lier tears inspiredlme to worl{.iianferfor lier Happiness.
I am lieartilj' tlian§#¢[ to my .supervisor.s; fD: 7-[amimi Omar and'Q)12 SEaWamMM 6.
'Taliir _/Br their constant support, guid'an4:e, motivatvbn, and encouragement tlirou8liout tlitls research
I owe my deepest gratitzuér to my sisters arr 6rot/iera; _liar t/ieir law, afro support, e.specialZ§» "Omar" w/io .staring next to me affzhe time.
Tinalfy, I q{7'kr my Rave, regard anfappreczhtion to my tmej5ie1u£s anfeveryone who Has Iielped'me anfkavejbotprint in tétls]bumq.
'I/Vazerali .S'. jlftarawne/i
TABLE OF CONTENTS PERMISSION TO USE
ABSTRACT ABSTRAK . O •
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF APPENDICES
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1 Introduction .. 11.2 Background of the Study
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11.3 Crisis in the Middle East 5
1.4 Tourism in Jordan 7
1.5 Problem Statement 10
1.6 Research Questions 17
1.7 Research Objectives 18
1.8 Scope of the Study 19
1.9 Significance of the Study 19
1.10 Operational definitions 21
1.11 Outline of the Thesis
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231.12 Chapter Summary 24
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CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 25
Introduction
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2.2.1 Perception of Risk in Tourism
2.3 Factors Shaping Perception of Risks of Tourists
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Jordan 42
Actual Travel Experience 45
Satisfaction of Tourists 46
Future Intentions of Tourists 48
2.6.1 Revisit 48
2.6.2 Word of Mouth 4 50
2.6.3 Relationship between Actual Travel Experience and Future Intentions.... 5 l 2.6.4 Relationship between Satisfaction and Fu e Intentions 53
2.7 Theoretical Framework 54
2.7.1 Expectation-Confirmation Theory 55
2.7.2 Applications of ECT in Tourism Research 56
2.7.3 Development of Conceptual Framework 63
Hypotheses Development
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2.8.1.1 Media
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Factors that Shape Tourists' Perception of Risk and their Satisfaction as
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2.8.3 Tourists' Actual Travel Experience as Mediator between Factors that Shape Tourists' Perception of Risk and Satisfaction as Hypotheses 2.8.4 Tourists' Actual Travel Experience Influences Tourists' Future
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2.8.5 Tourists' Satisfaction as Mediator between Tourists' Actual travel experience and Future Intentions as Hypotheses
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CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ..
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Justifications of Methodology 3.3 Research Design
3.4 Research Process
3.5 Conceptual Hypotheses Model of the Study 3.6 Sampling Design
3.6.1 Population 3.6.2 Sample Size
3.6.3 Sampling Technique 3.7 Instrument Development
3.7.1 Instrument Items Selection
3.7.2 Instrument Validity and Reliability 3.8 Procedures of Data Collection
3.9 Pilot Study 3.9.1 3.9.2
3.10 Data Analysis 3.11 Chapter Summary
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CHAPTER FOUR: DATA
Introduction 1
4.2 Overview of the Data Collected and Response Rate 4.3 Data Screening
4.3.1 Missing Values
4.3 .2 Univariate Outlier Test 4.3.3 Multivariate Outlier Test 4.3.4 Normality
Demographic of Respondents
Trip Related Characteristics of Respondents Exploratory Factor Analysis of Measurement Scale
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4.8 Measurement of Hypothesis Model Using Structurer] Equation Modelling Goodness of Fit Index for SEM
Confirmatory Factor Analysis of Model f 4.8.3 Construct Validity of Final Measurement Model 4.8.4 Structural Model
4.9 Hypotheses Testing
4.9.1 The Hypotheses Test of Factors Shaping Perception of Risks 4.9.1.1 Test of the First Hypothesis
4.9.1.2 Test of the Second Hypothesis 4.9. l .3 Test of the Third Hypothesis 4.9. 1 .4 Test of the Fourth Hypothesis 4.9. 1 .5 Test of the Fifth Hypothesis 4.9.1.6 Test of the Sixth Hypothesis 4.9.1 .7 Test of the Seventh Hypothesis 4.9. 1 .8 Test of the Eighth Hypothesis
4.9.2 Mediation Effects of Tourists Actual Travel Experience
4.9.3 Direct Effects of Actual Travel Experience on Future Intentions 4.9.3.1 Test of the Tenth Hypothesis f
4.9.3.2 Test of the Eleventh Hypothesis 4.9.3.3 Test of the Twelfth Hypothesis 1 4.9.4 Mediation Effects of Tourists Satisfaction 4.9.4.1 Test of the Thirteenth Hypothesi 4.9.4.2 Test of the Fourteenth Hypothesis 4.9.4.3 Test of the Fifteenth Hypothesis |
4.10 Chapter Summary
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112 113 113 115 118 120 123 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 137 138 139 140CHAPTER FWE DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION 5.1 Introduction
5.2 Summary of Study Findings
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'I'. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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143 143 143
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Managerial Contributions
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1Limitation and Recommendations for Future Studies
5.2.2 Discussion on Hypotheses Testing 145
5.2.2.1 The Effect of Factors Shaping Perception of Risks on Actual Travel
Experience 147
5.2.2.2 Effect of Factors Shaping Perception of Risks on Tourists'
Satisfaction r 150
5.2.2.3 Mediating effect of Actual Travel Experience 153 5.2.2.4 The Effect of Actual Travel Experience on Future Intention... 155 5.2.2.5 Mediating effect of Tourists' Satisfaction 157
5.3 Discussion of Research Objectives Findings 161
5.4 Implications of the Study 167
5.4.1 Theoretical Contributions 167
5.4.2 171
5.5 174
5.6 Conclusion 175
REFERENCES 177
APPENDICES 210
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r
T 1
Q U O . . . . . . . . .
LIST OF TABLES
r
F
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Table l.l The International Tourists Visiting Jordan Table 2.1 The Perception of Risks Definitions Table 2.2 Political Instability Effect on Tourism
Table 2.3 Terrorism Impact on Tourism 1
Table 2.4 The Nineteen important Factors that Shape Perception of Risks Table 3.1 The Relate between Research Questions, Research Objectives and
Hypotheses of Research ,.
Table 3.2 Number of International Tourists Visited Main Jordanian Tourist Sites in
2017
I
Table 3.3 The Cluster Sampling for the Present Study f Table 3.4 Items Developed to Measure the Media
--t
Table 3.5 Items Developed to Measure the Knowledge of Destinatio Table 3.6 Items Developed to Measure the Culture Diiilzrence
Table 3.7 Items Developed to Measure the Tourists' Actual Travel Experience Table 3.8 Items Developed to Measure the Tourists' Satisfaction
Table 3.9 Items Developed to Measure the Tourists' Fture Intention Table 3.10 Sites chosen for Pilot Study -.I-
Table 3.1 l Descriptive Statistics of Respondents' Demographic of Pilot Study Table 3.12 Reliability and Validity Test for the Pilot Study of Factors Shaping
Perception of Risks
. . I . .
Table 3.13 Reliability and Validity Test for the Pilot Shidy of Actual Travel
Experience 100
Table 3.14 Reliability and Validity Test for the Pilot Sftudy of Tourist Satisfaction.... 100 Table 3.15 Reliability and Validity Test for the Pilot Study of Tourists' Future
Intentions
Table 3.16 Statistical Analysis Steps, Techniques and Software
Table 4.1 No. of Questionnaires Distributed in each o the 3 Tourist Sites Table 4.2 Procedures for Missing Data ..
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f. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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9 26 28 30 40
80
81 84 86 87 88 89 90 91 96 97
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101 102 106 107
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Table 4.4 Assessment of Normality for ModelTable 4.5 Descriptive Statistics of Respondents' Demographic Profiles Table 4.6 Descriptive Statistics of Trip Characteristics I
Table 4.7 Factor Loadings of the Present Study Model Factors Table 4.8 Reliability Test Results of the Measurement Questionnaire Table 4.9 Goodness-of-Fit Indic atoms of SEM
Table 4.10 Convergent Validity of the Final Structural Model Table 4.11 Discriminate Validity Values (Fomell-Larcker Criterion) Table 4. 12 Bootstrap Test of the Direct Relationship between Actual Travel
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110 112 114 117 112 114 118 120
Experience and Media r
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Table 4.13 Bootstrap Test of the Direct Relationship between Actual Travel Experience and knowledge of destination
Table 4.14 Bootstrap Test of the Direct Relationship between Actual Travel Experience and Culture Difference
I
Table 4.15 Bootstrap Test of the Direct Relationship between Actual Travel Experience and Perception of Risks
r
Table 4.16 Bootstrap Test of the Direct Relationship between Tourists' Satisfaction and Media
-I
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o n e : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Table 4.17 Bootstrap Test of the Direct Relationship between Tourists' Satisfaction and Knowledge of Destination
Table 4. 18 Bootstrap Test of the Direct Relationship between Tourists' Satisfaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . + . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
125 126
127
128
129 130
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and Culture Difference l~
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Table 4.19 Bootstrap Test of the Direct Relationship between Tourists' Satisfaction
and Perception of Risks 1
Table 4.20 Bootstrap test of Actual Travel Experience as Mediation between Perception of Risks and Tourists Satisfaction
Table 4.21 Bootstrap Test of the Direct Relationship between Actual Travel Experience and Revisit
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.Table 4.22 Bootstrap Test of the Direct Relationship between Actual Travel Experience and Word of Mouth
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131 131
133
135 136
Table 4.23 Bootstrap Test of the Direct Relationship between Actual Travel Experience and Future Intentions
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Table 4.24 Bootstrap test of Tourists Satisfaction as Mediation between Actual Travel Experience and Revisit ,
Table 4.25 Bootstrap test of Tourists Satisfaction as Mediation between Actual Travel Experience and Word of Mouth 4
Table 4.26 Bootstrap test of Tourists Satisfaction as Mediation between Actual Travel Experience and Future Intentions t
Table 5. 1 CFA Measurement and Structured Models (Cioodness-of-Fit indices)
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Table 5. 2 Summary Findings of Hypotheses Research tP Achieve the Objectives of Study
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t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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I. . . . . . . . . . .
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137 138 139
140 144 160
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1 Tourist Map of Jordan
Figure 2.1 Expeetation-Confirmation Theory
Figure 2.2 Research Model Developed by Shahijan et al (2015) Figure 2.3 Research Model Developed by Chou et al. (2012) Figure 2.4 Research Model Developed by Shahijan et aL (2018) Figure 2.5 Research Model Developed by Boo and Bus er (2018) Figure 2.6 Research Model Developed by Rah ran et al (2019) Figure 2.7 Interrelationships among Variables
Figure 2. 8 Conceptual Framework Figure 3. l The research process of study Figure 4.1 Nationality of Respondents Figure 4.2 CFA of Hypotheses Model
Figure 4.3 Research Structural Model r Figure 4.4 The Effect of Factors Shaping Perception of BRisks Figure 4.5 Relationship of Research Variables..
Figure 4.6 The Effect of Actual Travel Experience and the Mediation Effect of Tourists Satisfaction
Figure 5.1 Overall the Proposed Model with Coefficient of Significant Paths
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-r. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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*. . . . . . . . . . .
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t. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8 56 57 58 59 60 60 61 65 78 113 117 122 124 132 134 146
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Appendix A : Questionnaire
Appendix B: Managing Data Analysis
Appendix C: Structural Equation Modeling Test
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r
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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .210 214 219
LIST OF APPENDICES
CD Culture Differences
ECT Expectation-Confirmation Theory GDP Gross Domestic Product
ISIS Islamic State of Iraq and Syria
JTB Jordan Tourism Board
KD Knowledge of Destination
MD Media
MoTA MinistTy of Tourism and Antiquities PI Political Instability Risk
PR Perception of Risks
RV Revisit
SAT Tourists' Satisfaction
SEM Structural Equation Modelling ATE Actual Travel Experience
TR Terrorism Risk
UNWTO United Nations World Tourism Organization
WOM Word-of-Mouth
WTO World Trade Organization
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
1.1 Introduction
The present study aims to investigate the factors that shape perception of risks on the actual travel experience and satisfaction of international tourists who visited Jordan and their future behavior. This chapter commences with a brief discussion of the study background, identification of the knowledge gap and the problem statement, and the formulation of the research questions and objectives. Subsequently, the following are
al
presented: the scope of the Stu y, the significance of the research, th
es
efinitions of key terms, and an outline of the thesis.1.2 Background of the Study
The tourism 'industry is considered as one of the major and most diverse industries in the world. According to the June 2019 UNWTO World tourism Barometer, international tourist arrivals increased by 5% in 2018, reaching a record of 1.4 billion arrivals. Despite global economic challenges, international tourism results surpassed expectations entirely, with an additional 43 million international tourists travelling the world in 2018. UNWTO predicted an increase from 3% to 4% by 2019, again, this figure is above the long-term projections (UNWTO, 2019).
Jordan has been adopting tourism strategies to diversify its economy, which is similar to many of the Middle East governments (UNWTO, 2005). However, like many other
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