THE RECONSTRUCTIVE ROLE OF THE UNITED NATIONS IN LIBYA’S POST-ARAB SPRING CRISIS
BY
ANWAR A.Y ELFEITORI
A dissertation submitted in fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Human Sciences (Political Science)
Kulliyyah of Islamic Revealed Knowledge and Human Sciences
International Islamic University Malaysia
JANUARY 2018
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ABSTRACT
This study seeks to identify and critically examine the ongoing Libyan crisis dating back to its historical development of the crisis from the outbreak of the uprising to the aftermath of the Gaddafi regime in 2011. The study is not only aimed at investigating this trend, but it seeks to investigate and analyse the ongoing crisis and security concerns after the collapse of Gaddafi to date. The purpose of that investigation is to critically examine the role played by the United Nations in its efforts to find a solution to Libya’s post-Arab spring crisis. Another main focus of this study is to address key contributing challenges to crisis; political, security, economic and social variables. There is a need to address those challenges which contributed to the crisis escalation in the aftermath of the Gaddafi regime in Libya.
Furthermore, this research analyses and evaluates the role of the United Nations in Libya during different phases succeeding in Libya’s post-Arab spring. The study is conducted using a third party model of crisis management. Finally, the study concludes that the above variables - political, security, social and economics - were dependent on crisis escalation in the aftermath of the Gaddafi regime which required an appropriate method of crisis management. The study argues that, while regional intervention such as the African Union (AU) was necessary but on the other hand was ineffective; because the complexity of the crisis required a more international community role such as the United Nations in dealing with the crisis. The study in its overall investigation suggests some recommendations for a potential crisis management role in Libya. The study findings are significant in the sense that, they aimed at enriching the resources that could be referenced by researchers in related fields which could contribute towards knowledge and be utilized by politicians and decision makers for growing trend of crisis management and conflict resolution.
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صخلم ثحبلا
ABSTRACT IN ARABIC
ةمزلأا ىلع فرعتلا لىإ ثحبلا اذه ىعسي مملأا رودو فياذقلا ماظن طوقس باقعأ في ةيبيللا
.بيرعلا عيبرلا دعب ايبيل في ةدحتلما ةينملأاو ةيسايسلا يااضقلا ديدتح لىإ ثحبلا فدهي امك
تيلا ةيسيئرلا ةيعامتجلااو ةيداصتقلااو ماظنلا طوقس بقع تامزلاا ديعصت في تهماس
ع ثحبلا زكر ،كلذ ىلع ةولاعو .ايبيل في قباسلا مييقتو ليلتح ىل
ايبيل في ةدحتلما مملأا رود
فرطلا جذونم مادختسبا ثحبلا يرجأ دقو .بيرعلا عيبرلا تلت تيلا ةفلتخلما لحارلما للاخ يهو ىوتلمحا ليلتح ىلع دمتعت تيلا بيتكلماو يقئثاولا ثحبلا ةقيرطو ،تامزلأا ةرادلإ ثلاثلا تمو ةيثحبلا تناايبلا ليلتحو عملج ةديفم ةادأ ةفرعلما في ةهماسلماو اهتمءلالم جئاتنلا رابتخا
ينيسايسلا لبق نم اهمادختساو ةلصلا تاذ تلاالمجا في ينثحابلا لبق نم اهيلإ عوجرلا نكيم ةيبيللا ةيجرالخا ةسايسلا في ينكراشلما رارقلا عانصو
.
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APPROVAL PAGE
I certify that I have supervised and read this study and that in my opinion; it conforms to acceptable standards of scholarly presentation and is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a dissertation for the degree of Master of Human Sciences (Political Science).
………..
Abdi Omar Shuriye.
Supervisor
I certify that I have read this study and that in my opinion it conforms to acceptable standards of scholarly presentation and is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a dissertation for the degree of Master of Human Sciences (Political Science).
………..
Examiner
This dissertation was submitted to the Department of Political Science and is accepted as a fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Human Sciences (Political Science).
………..
Khairil Izamin Bin Ahmad Head, Department of Political Science
This dissertation was submitted to the Kulliyyah of Islamic Revealed Knowledge and Human Sciences and is accepted as a fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Human Sciences (Political Science).
………..
Mohammad Abdul Quayum Dean, Kulliyyah of Islamic Revealed Knowledge and Human Sciences
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DECLARATION
I hereby declare that this dissertation is the result of my own investigation, except where otherwise stated. I also declare that it has not been previously or concurrently submitted as a whole for any other degrees at IIUM or other institutions.
Anwar A.Y Elfeitori
Signature………....………. Date …….……….
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COPYRIGHT
INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIC UNIVERSITY MALAYSIA
DECLARATION OF COPYRIGHT AND AFFIRMATION OF FAIR USE OF UNPUBLISHED RESEARCH
THE RECONSTRUCTIVE ROLE OF THE UNITED NATIONS IN LIBYA’S POST-ARAB SPRING CRISIS
I declare that the copyright holder of this dissertation are jointly owned by the student and IIUM.
Copyright © 2018 Anwar A.Y Elfeitori and International Islamic University Malaysia. All rights reserved.
No part of this unpublished research may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without prior written permission of the copyright holder except as provided below
1. Any material contained in or derived from this unpublished research may be used by others in their writing with due acknowledgement.
2. IIUM or its library will have the right to make and transmit copies (print or electronic) for institutional and academic purposes.
3. The IIUM library will have the right to make, store in a retrieved system and supply copies of this unpublished research if requested by other universities and research libraries.
By signing this form, I acknowledged that I have read and understand the IIUM Intellectual Property Right and Commercialization policy.
Affirmed by Anwar A.Y Elfeitori
……..……….. ………..
Signature Date
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DEDICATION
This dissertation is dedicated to my beloved parents
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
First, I would like to thank the Almighty Allah for granting me the health, time and knowledge necessary for completing this research.
Second, it is my utmost pleasure to thank my dear parents, my wife and children, who gave me love and the support during the term of my studies: I’m grateful for your support and patience.
I wish to express my appreciation and thanks to my supervisor Professor Abdi Omar Shoriye who provided his valuable time, effort and support for this research.
His attention and critical comments and suggestions were helpful and appreciated.
This work would have not been possible without his support and advice. Also many thanks to the members of the department of Political Science and the Kulliyyah research committee for their contributions, thank you for your support and advice.
Finally, a special thanks to Professor Rahmah, Dean of the Kulliyyah of IRK
& HS for her role, encouragement and leadership, and for that, I will be forever grateful.
May Allah reward you all abundantly.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Abstract ... ii
Abstract in Arabic ... iii
Approval Page ... iv
Declaration ... v
Copyright ... vi
Dedication ... vii
Acknowledgements ... viii
List of Figures ... xiii
CHAPTER ONE: GENERAL INTRODUCTION ... 1
1.1 Introduction... 1
1.2 Background of the Study ... 1
1.3 Research Methodology ... 9
1.4 Chapters Outline ... 10
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ... 12
2.1 Introduction... 12
2.2 Literature REview ... 12
2.2.1 Security Trends and Its Role in Crisis Escalation ... 12
2.3 Libyan’s Post Arab Spring Crisis: The United Nations Post Conflict Stabilization Approach ... 16
2.4 Theoretical Framework ... 22
2.4.1 Security Trends in the Libyan Crisis... 23
2.4.2 Third Party Role in Crisis Management ... 26
2.4.3 The UN Secretary-General and the Prevention of International Conflict ... 27
CHAPTER THREE: SECURITY, POLITICAL, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES IN THE POST-GADDAFI LIBYA ... 35
3.1 INTRODUCTION ... 35
3.2 Security Challenges ... 35
3.2.1 Lack of Strong Military Forces during Gaddafi Era ... 36
3.2.2 Weak Police and Security Forces during Gaddafi Era ... 37
3.2.3 Armed Groups and Lack of Arms Control... 38
3.2.4 Local and International Terrorism ... 40
3.2.4.1 Islamic State (IS) in Libya ... 41
3.2.5 Illegal Immigration ... 42
3.3 Political Challenges ... 44
3.3.1 Lack of a Constitution ... 45
3.3.2 Nonexistence of Democratic Institutions ... 48
3.3.3 Negative International Interventions ... 49
3.3.4 Premature Power Struggle ... 51
3.3.5 Political Division... 51
3.4 Economic Challenges ... 52
3.4.1 Deteriorating National Income ... 53
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3.4.2 Weak Private Sector ... 55
3.4.3 High Unemployment Rate ... 57
3.4.4 Inadequate Infrastructure ... 58
3.4.5 Freeze of National Projects and Development ... 58
3.4.6 Parallel Foreign Currency Market ... 59
3.4.7 Shortage of Local Currency ... 60
3.5 Social Challenges... 60
3.5.1 Domestic Violence ... 60
3.5.2 Lack of a Democratic Culture ... 61
3.5.3 Human Rights Violations ... 62
3.5.4 Tribal System ... 63
3.5.5 Humanitarian Needs ... 65
3.5.6 Divided Society ... 65
3.5.7 Negative Impact of Media ... 68
3.6 Summary ... 68
CHAPTER FOUR: THE ROLE OF THE UNITED NATIONS IN LIBYA’S POST ARAB SPRING CRISIS ... 72
4.1 Introduction... 72
4.2 Reasons that Triggered UN Intervention in Libya ... 72
4.3 UN Security Council Resolution 1970 (2011)... 73
4.3.1 Protection of Civilians ... 75
4.3.2 Referral to International Criminal Court (ICC) ... 75
4.3.3 Arms Embargo ... 76
4.3.4 Travel Ban ... 77
4.3.5 Asset Freeze ... 77
4.3.6 New Sanctions Committee ... 77
4.3.7 Humanitarian Assistance... 78
4.3.8 Impact of Resolution 1970 (2011) on the Regime ... 78
4.4 UN Security Council Resolution 1973 (2011)... 79
4.4.1 Cessation of Fire ... 80
4.4.2 Protection of Civilians ... 81
4.4.3 No Fly Zone ... 81
4.4.4 Enforcement of the Arms Embargo ... 82
4.4.5 Ban on Flights ... 82
4.4.6 Asset Freeze ... 83
4.4.7 Panel of Experts ... 83
4.5 Regime Attack on Benghazi ... 83
4.6 Nato Military Intervention in Libya ... 85
4.6.1 Operation Unified Protector ... 86
4.6.2 Conclusion of NATO Mission in Libya ... 88
4.7 United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) ... 89
4.7.1 UNSMIL Role in Democratic Transition ... 90
4.7.1.1 Electoral Assistance ... 90
4.7.1.2 Constitution Drafting Assembly Support ... 91
4.7.1.3 Technical and Political Advice for General National Congress ... 92
4.7.1.4 National Reconciliation Efforts. ... 92
4.7.1.5 Women’s Empowerment Support ... 92
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4.8 The Libyan Political and Security Conflict ... 93
4.8.1 Dissolving the General National Congress and Early Elections ... 94
4.8.2 February Committee ... 95
4.8.3 General National Congress Partial Approval of February Committee Proposal ... 97
4.8.4 Dignity (Alkaramah) Military Operation ... 97
4.8.5 Libyan Dawn (Fajr Libya) Military Operation ... 99
4.8.6 The UN Role in the House of Representatives Elections ... 99
4.8.7 The House of Representatives Assembles in Tobroq ... 100
4.8.8 The General National Congress Continues to Operate in Tripoli ... 101
4.9 The Role of the UN in Libyan Political Dialogue ... 102
4.10 The Libyan Political Agreement ... 105
4.10.1 The Government of National Accord ... 106
4.10.2 The House of Representatives ... 109
4.10.3 The High State Council ... 110
4.10.4 Interim Security Arrangements ... 111
4.11 The Role of the UN Post the Libyan Political Agreement ... 112
4.12 Summary ... 114
CHAPTER FIVE: EVALUATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS ROLE IN LIBYA’S POST ARAB SPRING CRISES ... 115
5.1 Examining the Role of the African Union ... 116
5.2 Analysing the Role of the United Nations in the Fall of Gadaffi’s Regime ... 121
5.2.1 The United Nations Resolution 1970 and 1973 (2011) ... 125
5.2.2 Responsibility to Protect (R2P) and the Case of Libyan Conflict ... 128
5.3 The Light-Footprint Strategy for Libya Post Gaddafi Era... 132
5.4 The United Nations Third Party Role in the Libyan Political Dialogue ... 138
5.5 Summary ... 141
CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH ... 142
6.1 Introduction... 142
6.2 Conclusions ... 142
6.2.1 Challenges Facing Contemporary Libya... 142
6.2.1.1 Security Challenges ... 143
6.2.1.2 Political Challenges ... 143
6.2.1.3 Economic Challenges ... 143
6.2.1.4 Social Challenges ... 144
6.2.2 The United Nations’ Role in Libya Post the Arab Spring ... 145
6.2.2.1 The United Nations’ Right to Protect Role during the Uprising ... 145
6.2.2.2 The United Nations’ Light-Footprint Strategy during Post Gaddafi Era ... 148
6.2.2.3 The United Nations’ Third Party Role in the Libyan Political Dialogue ... 148
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6.3 Recommendations for United Nations’ Future Role in Libya ... 149
6.3.1 Engagement of Effective Rivals in the Political Process ... 149
6.3.2 Enforcement of the Implementation of the Libyan Political Agreement ... 150
6.3.3 Enforcement of Cease Fire ... 150
6.3.4 Disarmament of Armed Groups and Integration into Institutions ... 151
6.3.5 Capacity Building ... 151
6.3.6 Border Control and Illegal Migration Elimination ... 151
6.3.7 War on Terrorism ... 152
6.3.8 Enforce Arms Embargo ... 152
6.3.9 Enforce Sanctions on those Hindering the Political Process ... 152
6.3.10 Unifying the Libyan Army and Police Force ... 153
6.3.11 Unifying Libyan Institutions ... 153
6.3.12 Assist in Revamping Oil and Gas Production ... 153
6.4 Future Research ... 154
REFERENCES ... 155
APPENDIX I ... 160
APPENDIX II ... 178
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1 Libyan Crisis Model for analysis 26
Figure 3.1 Political Map of Libya Source: https://images.search.yahoo.
com/search/images?p=the+map+of+Libya 66
Figure 5.1 Libya’s Post-Gaddafi challenges 136
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CHAPTER ONE
GENERAL INTRODUCTION
1.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter provides the general background to the study and contains specific details of the nature of the study that constitutes this thesis. The chapter introduces the statement of the problem and objectives, and the chapter concludes with the method of data collection and outline of chapterisation. The background to the study offers an investigation and explanation that were evident for this study. The rationale behind this was to offer a justification to fulfil its academic purpose. The benefits derived from would be articulated in the form of the significance of the study, which ultimately exposes what potential this study has to offer in the landscape of experience and operations in its area of discipline. Given the ultimate nature of doing academic research, the study formulates some relevant research questions as a framework of guidance and determination of the study. These research questions and objectives are followed by methods of data collection and analysis. After the methodology, the chapter concludes by offering an outline to the study that comprises various components that forms the entire work and various sub-components which include every chapter.
1.2 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
There is a growing concern over the ongoing conflict in Libya since 2011 up to this date; after the revolution and uprising against the former leader Gaddafi and his regime. Consequently, the concern became obvious as the crisis continues to escalate
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and get out of control in the aftermath of the former regime, which was the main reason behind the uprising. Consequently, scholars and researchers of Social Sciences and Political Science in particular on the subject, have attempted to investigate this development by tracing the crisis to its causes, to find a relevant and suitable approach towards finding a solution to the crisis. Above all, there has also been interest among scholars from various disciplines on the nature of the crisis in Libya and the way of managing it. The perspective given by a Scholar named Gilbet Achcar highlighted a radical exploration of the Arab uprising. He gave some observations about the Arab uprising in general1. His perspective explained to various actors and dynamics of the revolutionary process. The author identifies the role of various political and social movements, and the emergence of the role played by young actors in making and spreading news and information and communication technologies and the influence of power elites and existing state affairs that determine different response calling for regime change in each case.
Consequently, there is an emerging concern regarding how to deal with the Arab uprising. A leading scholar in this regard is Christopher S.Chivvis who described the Libyan crisis as far from over with the demise of former dictator Gaddafi. With his removal, Libyans were faced with serious challenges of nation-building and among those challenges is the role of the International Community for a sustained engagement2.
The history of modern Libya simply shows that, throughout time, foreign powers with diverse goals and objectives –from intruders, interveners and enablers-
1 Gilbert Achcar, The People Want: A Radical Exploration of the Arab Uprising, trans. G. M.
Goshgarian (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2013), 130
2 Christopher S. Chivvis et al., Libya's Post-Qaddafi Transition: The Nation-Building Challenge (Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 2012), 17
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have played a significant role in shaping the country’s institutions and policies3. Major Powers including Britain, France, Italy and the United States have all shaped the country’s policy and institutions. The Western world and major Powers, in particular, have been driven by many motivations towards other nations. This notion of interest is well explained in International relations’ realist theory4. Major Powers’ interest provides multiple types of action to achieve those goals. These intruders, with diverse motives and goals, have intruded and conquered the Arab nations during their times of weaknesses and divisions. Various Arab nations struggled to defend their sovereignty using all legitimate means including armed struggle. Accordingly, most countries went through decades of oppression, unrest, chaos, lack of basic human needs including health, education and proper housing. This impacted the culture of Arab citizens and resulted in generations of people who have never witnessed freedom, human rights, democracy and tolerance towards their citizens in cases of diversity.
This situation continued in most Arab countries after independence specifically when these countries were ruled by military officers that came to power though coups with the support of the colonizers.
The claimed objective of the 1969 coup of Gaddafi was to get rid of all foreign influences which he thought were damaging to the existence of Libya5. As a strong advocate of Arab nationalism, Gaddafi insisted that his mission be to eradicate external influences that would, in turn, give birth to a true Libya. The reality was that Libya continued to be under foreign influences.
Libya, since the fall of the previous regime under the leadership of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, has been besieged by crises, and the country is facing serious
3 Saskia Van Genugten, Libya in Western Foreign Policies, 1911-2011, p.2.
4 Jack Donnelly, Realism and International Relations (Cambridge Press, UK. 1st edition, 2000) p.6.
5 Saskia Van, Libya in Western Foreign Policies, 1911-2011, p.4
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challenges including security, social and economic related issues6. Since the collapse of the former regime, the country had experienced some sorts of lawlessness, sectarian violence and anarchy which some opinions said if not well attended to could drag the country into a failed state7. Some of these issues are the results of the uprising in Libya during the Arab Spring, as well as accumulated problems during the forty-two years of dictatorship under the Gaddafi rule. Five years have passed since the emergence of the Arab Spring, however, the state of Libya has been locked in a state of continued violence and crises, moving the country to a full-scale civil war and this civil war could even drag the country into an overall collapse.
When it comes to conflict resolution, none of the world existing organisations can be as effective as United Nations. With its professional staff and expertise, the United Nations is certainly the largest, most representative and most inter- governmental organisations in the World. One of the most important goals and objectives of the United Nations is to maintain peace and security and to prevent conflicts around the globe. Conflict management remains one of the most important topics of International politics; furthermore, it is one of the primary goals and objectives of the United Nations. Even though both the origin and nature of conflict have changed, the goal and objective of protecting a long-term generation from the impact of conflicts and civil unrest have remained the same. These goals have been incorporated in the United Nations Charter since its inception in 1945. In current Conflict management studies setting, preventive initiatives have gone further than previously thought, from conventional peace talks to include a wide and variety divisions of the United Nations activities which deal with conflict resolution. By this
6 John Wright, Opinion https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201610201046510092-libya-gaddafi-death- anniversary/ (Accessed 15-Nov-2016).
7 Ibid.
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rapid development in conflict management, the United Nations has committed itself to shifting from a policy of response to prevent causes of conflicts in Global politics. To deal effectively with member countries, and measures are taken to tackle roots causes of conflicts before they escalate into a crisis8. The United Nations has a significant responsibility in this initiative. This background can be linked with the topic under study, which is the role of the United Nations in Libya’s Post Arab Spring development.
The ongoing escalating atmosphere of instability in the entire country has alarmed the United Nations to take a leading role in finding a way out of the current crisis in the country. There have been some preliminary proposals and various low profile attempts laid down by the United Nations, but these attempts seem to be inadequate in meeting the requirements for solving the crisis. Among the initiatives taken by the United Nations was the year 2015 draft proposal calling for a Libyan Unity government following series of negotiation in Morocco with the aim in bringing the two governments operating in the country because of the political division to have a common ground. This is an attempt to establish at least an environment that would bring law and order in Libya9.
Announcing the plan and preliminary peace proposal being put forward by the United Nations, head of the United Nations support mission in Libya Bernadino Leon expressed in his statement: “The people of Libya have their eyes on this gathering, on you. In the hope that you will save your country and your people from protracted conflict”10. This draft proposal that was presented by the Head of United Nations
8 Kyle Beardsley, Diplomacy, Peacekeeping and the Severity of Civil War. p.4
9 Robert M. Perito, Libya: A Post-Arab Spring Test for Security Sector Reform (2016), p. 7.
10 Bernadino Leon said this statement during his interview with the BBC. Details of his speech can be accessed at http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-33059028.
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support mission has been attained following a high-level discussion between the main factions concerned.
The Initial United Nations political agreement went through several rounds of modifications by the National Dialogue Committee (comprised of key players in the political and military conflict) until it has been finally agreed and signed by them on December 17, 2015. The United Nations-facilitated political agreement established an interim unity government, the Government of National Accord (GNA), in the Libyan capital city of Tripoli, with the House of Representatives that was elected in Tobruk in 2014 would be the only legislative body. Also, 120 members Supreme State Council consultative body consisting of members of the Tripoli parliament, General National Congress (GNC) has been established.
The Government of National Accord recognized by the United Nations and the International community was established in Tripoli. However, it does not have full control over all over Libyan territories and the sufferings of the Libyan people continue. Political divisions continue, and war between different factions on the ground prevails.
Libya is still in dire need of a political solution that may end the political division, stop the war between Libyans and restore order and stability to the country.
It is the Libyan people that can make that happen. However, the United Nations and the International community need to support Libyans to achieve stability of their country. The United Nations, with the support of the International community, aims to play an important role in Libya’s post-Arab spring towards abating the crisis and to bring back stability and development to the country.
The main focus of this research will, therefore, be, to identify and analyse the United Nations activities in crisis management in Libya during Gaddafi era, with
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specific reference to the Post Arab Spring Libyan crisis. The study intends to describe the role of the United Nations in the fall of Gaddafi’s regime. Also, it will study the role of the United Nations in the efforts to stabilize Libya and establish a democratic environment since the fall of the previous regime to date. Achievements and failure will be identified, and lessons will be constructed. Results of this research will be utilized to propose recommendations for a future successful role of the United Nations in Libya that can lead to the stability and prosperity of the country.
Six years have passed since the emergence of the Arab Spring, however, the state of Libya has been locked in a state of continued violence and crises, gearing the country to a full scale of a civil war and that civil war could even drag the country to eventual state collapse. This ongoing escalating atmosphere of instability in the entire country has alarmed the United Nations to take a leading role in finding a way out of the current crisis in the country11.
This research seeks to identify and critically examine the role of the United Nations in the Post Arab Spring Libyan crisis. The researcher intends to describe the security conditions that trigger a protracted crisis in the country and the role of the United Nations in the aftermath of Gaddafi’s regime. Also, it will study the efforts of the United Nations to stabilize Libya and establish democracy, since the fall of the previous regime to date. Achievements and failure will be identified, and lessons will be constructed. Results of this research will be utilised to propose recommendations for a future successful role of the United Nations in Libya that can lead to the stability and prosperity of the country. It should be noted that this research cannot be achieved without detailed studies of the status quo to find out the challenges and difficulties towards finding a solution to the crisis, and lastly to present a clear vision regarding
11 Robert M. Perito, Libya: A Post-Arab Spring Test for Security Sector Reform (2016), p. 7.
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proper planning to reach satisfactory research output. The study attempts to answer the following questions:
1. What caused crisis escalation in the aftermath of the Gaddafi regime?
2. Are there any connections between political, social and economic variables to the ongoing Post Arab spring Libyan crisis?
3. What has been the role of the United Nations in resolving Libya’s Post Arab Spring crisis?
Based on the above questions, hypotheses postulating the relationships among variables, to be tested in the study that supports a protracted crisis, are outlined. The hypotheses are as follows:
H1 A Lack of central authority capable of reaching throughout the country affects negatively the country security leading to a protracted crisis in Libya.
H2 A political polarisation, economic uncertainties and lack of institutions to make democracy work affects security leading to a protracted crisis in Libya.
H3 A lack of sufficient International support for a comprehensive peace plan triggers a protracted crisis in Libya.
By identifying the above hypotheses, the study aimed to achieve the following objectives:
To identify major security issues triggering a crisis in the post-Gaddafi era.
To examine the impact of three variables (Political, Social and Economic), on the crisis in an attempt to single out major factors or indicators and escalators.
To determine the role of the United Nations in conflict management with specific reference to Libya’s Post-Arab Spring. The significance of this
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study is that this study will contribute to understanding the United Nations role in contemporary Libya and identifies accomplishments to be built upon and failures to be avoided. It will also recommend a future role of the United Nations in Libya that can lead to stability.
We intend to produce a research effort that can enrich the violable resources or reference sources for researchers in related fields such as International peace, security studies and International crisis studies. Furthermore, the results of this research can be utilized by politicians and decision makers involved in Libyan foreign policy, the Libyan mission to the United Nations, and the United Nations staff and decision- makers concerned with the Libyan case.
The findings of this study are based on practical experience of the researcher as an insider being a minister in the first two consecutive governments, after the uprising as well as a current ambassador. The study will be limited to crisis management in Libya post Arab spring, under the role expected to be played by the United Nations in dealing with a conflict situation. This study will be a documentary one and will be confined to using primary sources which will be extracted from various materials. Materials will be critically examined and analysed.
The scope of the study will be confined to the Libyan crisis from the eruption of the Libyan uprising to present year (2011-2017). The components of the study comprise of primary materials and other publications drawn from political contributions and academicians, respectively.
1.3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
This study will adopt a documentary and content analysis research method, and this method will be relying on materials from primary written sources on the topic under
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investigation. Secondary materials such as Library sources alongside other reliable online and journal writings will also be applied.
As stated earlier, the purpose of this proposal is to critically examine and analyse the post Arab spring Libyan crisis and the role of the International community in dealing with the crisis. This proposed work will also adopt a qualitative method of data collection. It deploys both historical and analytical research methods to conduct the required studies, which are as follows:
Historical research method: to review major historical events in modern Libyan history since the start of Western colonization. The focus will be given to historical events that are related to our study.
Analytical research method: Will be used to analyse different relevant events from the previous step to determine the root cause of issues and reach conclusive recommendations.
Data will be collected through sources such as books, other library materials, as well as relevant reports, journals and documents published by the United Nations.
Data collected will be analysed, and the findings will be utilized to build theoretical models that can guide us to evaluate the said United Nations role. Accordingly, the research findings will be deployed to recommend a future successful role of the United Nations that can contribute to the stability and development of contemporary Libya.
1.4 CHAPTERS OUTLINE
The research is divided into six chapters, and the outline of the study would be as follows:
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Chapter One: This chapter of the study presented the introduction of this research, a background to the study, statement of the problem, justification and significance of the study, research method of data collection and analysis, and concludes with a chapter outline.
Chapter Two: This chapter includes a relevant literature review and theoretical framework as a guideline for analysis.
Chapter Three: Security, Political, Social and Economic Challenges in Post-
Gaddafi era. The security vacuum alongside other variables left behind by the demise of Gaddafi requires immediate attention. To build upon a model that guides the researcher towards identifying crisis management approach, it is necessary to examine the root challenges to the crisis in Libya’s post-Gaddafi era. This study addresses those issues. To understand the United Nations role in Libya, the researcher needs to determine the genesis of the problem which is the subject of chapter three.
Chapter Four: The Role of the United Nations in Libya’s Post-Arab Spring
crisis. This chapter critically examines the United Nations role in Libya post the Arab Spring.
Chapter Five: This chapter evaluates the role played by the UN in its peace
supporting mission.
Chapter Six: deals with the conclusion and recommendations. It finally summarizes the conclusion, recommends a future role for the United Nations in Libya and highlights future directions for further research.
