UNIVERSITI MALAYSIA SABAH
BORANG PENGESAHAN STATUS TESIS a
JUDUL: DOMESTIC MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT TO OIL PRICE SHOCKS UNDER DIFFERENT EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES IN MALAYSIA.
DAZAH: SARJANA EKONOMI (EKONOMI KEWANGAN) SESI PENGAJIAN: 2005-2007
Saya, CHONG HUI ING mengaku membenarkan tesis Sarjana ini disimpan di Perpustakaan Universiti Malaysia Sabah dengan syarat-syarat kegunaan seperti berikut:
1. Tesis adalah hakmilik Universiti Malaysia Sabah.
2. Perpustakaan Universiti Malaysia Sabah dibenarkan membuat salinan untuk tujuan pengajian saya.
3. Perpustakaan dibenarkan membuat salinan tesis ini sebagai bahan pertukaran antara institusi pengajian tinggi.
4. TIDAK TERHAD.
(Penulis: CHONG HUI ING) Alamat:
Peti surat 1249, 91037 Tawau, Sabah.
Tarikh: 15 August 2007
Disahkan oleh
(TANDATANGAN PUSTAKAWAN)
(Penyelia: Dr. Fumitaka Furuoka)
Tarikh: - - - - -
Catatan: a Tesis dimaksudkan sebagai tesis Ijazah Doktor Falsafah dan Sarjana secara penyelidikan atau disertassi bagi pengajian secara kerja kursus dan penyelidikan, atau laporan Projek Sarjana Muda (LPSM).
DOMESTIC MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTME. NT TO OIL PRICE SHOCKS UNDER DIFFERENT
EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES . IN MALAYSIA.
CHONG HUI ING
PERPJSTAKAA .. J
UNIVERSITI MALA YS1.1\ SI\BAH
A THESIS IS SUBMIlTED IN THE FULFILLMENT OF REQUIREMENT FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ECONOMICS
SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS UNIVERSITI MALAYSIA SABAH
2007
DECLARATION
The materials in this thesis are original except for quotations, excerpts, summaries and references, which have been duly acknowledged.
(~O~j
CHONG HUI ING PS05-002-073 15 AUGUST 2007
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to express my appreciation to my supervisors, Dr. Fumitaka Furuoka and Dr. Wong Hock Tsen, who have made valuable comments and suggestions to improve the thesis substantially. lowe the debt to Madam Sharija Che Shaari for her helps at different stages of the thesis. I would also like to thank the staffs in Perpustakaan Universiti Malaysia Sabah for their helps in collecting information. As always, I am grateful to my family for their support.
ii
ABSTRACT
This thesis examines on the insulation properties of flexible exchange rate regime against fixed exchange rate regime from oil price shocks. A monthly sample 1980- 2005 from Malaysia is investigated whether the response of output, exchange rate and price level to oil price shocks are different across exchange rate regimes in the short run by applying Structural Vector Autoregressive model. The oil prices are found to be exogenous to the macroeconomic variables in Malaysia. Results show that the short run output responses to oil price disturbances are smoother under flexible exchange regime than fixed exchange regime. And there is asymmetric response of domestic variables to positive and negative oil price shocks across and within exchange regimes.
iii
ABSTRAK
PENYESUAIAN MAKROEKONOMI DOMESTIK TERHADAP KEJUTAN HARGA MINYAK DI BAWAH SESTEM KADAR PERTUKARAN YANG BERLAINAN
DI MALA YSIA.
Tesis ini mengkaji ciri-ciri penyingkiran sistem kadar pertukaran boleh ubah berbanding dengan sistem kadar pertukaran tetap daripada kejutan harga minyak.
Satu sampel bulanan 1980-2005 dari Malaysia dikajikan sama ada tindak balas output, kadar pertukaran dan tingkat harga terhadap kejutan harga minyak adalah berlainan di bawah sistem kadar pertukaran yang berbeza dengan mengaplikasikan model ''Structural Vector Autoregressive'~ Harga minyak didapati eksogen kepada pembolehubah makroekonomi di Malaysia. Keputusan menunjukkan bahawa tindak balas jangka pendek output terhadap kejutan harga minyak adalah lebih licin di bawah sistem pertukaran boleh ubah daripada sistem pertukaran tetap. Ttndak balas asimetri pembolehubah domestik terhadap kejutan harga minyak positif dan negatif wujud antara dan dalam sistem pertukaran.
iv
ADF AIC CFA CFA CPI EIA EMS GARCH GDP GNP IFS IMF
Ml
M2 NYMEX OECD OLS PPI UNCTAD VAR VARY..
VECM WIT
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Akaike Information Criteria
Cooperation financiere en Afrique centrale (for Central Africa) Communaute financiere d'Afrique (for West Africa)
Consumer Price Index
Energy Information Administration European Monetary System
Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Gross Domestic Product
Gross National Product
International Financial Statistics International Monetary Fund Monetary Aggregate 1 Monetary Aggregate 2
New York Mercantile Exchange
Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development Ordinary Least Square
Producer Price Index
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Vector Autoregressive
Vector Autoregressive with Exogenous Variables Vector Error Correction Model
West Texas Intermediate
v
LIST OF CONTENTS
PAGES DECLARATION
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii
ABSTRACT iii
ABSTRAK iv
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS v
LIST OF CONTENTS vi
LIST OF FIGURES viii
LIST OF TABLES ix
GLOSSARY
x
KEYWORDS xi
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.2 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM 4
1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS 4
1.4 OBJECTIVES OF STUDY 5
1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY 5
1.6 SCOPE OF STUDY 6
1.7 ORGANIZATION OF STUDY 7
CHAPTER 2: BACKGROUND OF STUDY 8
2.1 INTRODUCTION 8
2.2 MALAYSIA AS A PRICE TAKER OF CRUDE OIL 8 2.3 IMPACT OF CHANGES OF OIL PRICES ON MALAYSIA 9 2.3.1 CHANGES OF OIL PRICES AND INFLATION RATE 11 2.3.2 CHANGES OF OIL PRICES AND OUTPUT GROWTH 11 2.4 RESPONSES OF ECONOMIC POUCIES TO THE 14
INCREASE OF OIL PRICES
2.5 DEVELOPMENT OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES IN 17 MALAYSIA
2.6 SUMMARY 19
CHAPTER 3: LITERATURE REVIEW 20
3.1 INTRODUC110N 20
3.2 THE FRIEDMAN'S (1953) HYPOTHESIS 20
3.3 RESULTS OF RELATED PAST STUDIES 21
3.3.1 THE OIL PRICES AND MACROECONOMIC 21 VARIABLES
3.3.2 THE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATES IN INSULATING 28 THE EXTERNAL SHOCKS
3.3.3 PAST STUDIES IN THE CASE OF MALAYSIA 36
3.4 SUMMARY 39
CHAPTER 4: METHODOLOGY 40
4.1 INTRODUCTION 40
vi
4.2 UNIT ROOT TEST
4.3 JOHANSEN COINTEGRATION TEST 4.4 THE EXOGENEIlY OF OIL PRICES 4.5 VAR MODEL
4.5.1 STRUCTURAL VAR MODEL 4.5.2 THE IDENTIFICATION ISSUE
4.5.3 IDENTIFICATION OF STRUCTURAL VAR MODEL 4.5.4 ESTIMATING STRUCTURAL VAR MODEL
4.5.5 ESTIMATING IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION 4.5.6 ESTIMATING VARIANCE DECOMPosmON 4.6 DEFINmONS OF DATA
4.7 SOURCES OF DATA 4.8 SUMMARY
CHAPTER 5: RESULTS
5.1 INTRODUCTION 5.2 UNIT ROOT TESTS
5.3 JOHANSEN COINTEGRATION TESTS 5.4 THE EXOGENEIlY OF OIL PRICES
5.5 IMPULSE RESPONSES TO OIL PRICE SHOCKS
5.6 ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS UNDER DIFFERENT REGIMES 5.7 RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS 5.8 ALTERNATIVE EVIDENCE ON OIL PRICE SHOCKS 5.9 SUMMARY
CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION 6.1 INTRODUCTION 6.2 FINDINGS OF STUDY 6.3 DISCUSSION
6.4 IMPLICATIONS OF STUDY 6.5 LIMITATIONS OF STUDY
6.6 SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE STUDY 6.7 CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
APPENDIX A: RECOVERING STRUCTURAL VAR MODEL
APPENDIX B: IDENTIFICATION BY BLANCHARD AND QUAH (1989) APPENDIX C: DATA USED AND RELATED GRAPHS
APPENDIX D: OUTPUT OF EVIEWS
PAGES
40
41 42 43 44 46 48 49 50 50 51 52
53
54 54 54 56 57 57
60
63 66 72 73 73 73 75 77 80 81 82 84 89 91 92100
vii
LIST OF FIGURES
PAGES
Figure 1.1 Trade and Share of Trade to GDP 2
Rgure 1.2 FDI and Share of FDI to GDP 3
Figure 2.1 Malaysia Production, Consumption, Exports and Imports of 9 Crude Oil
Figure 2.2 Prices of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products 10 Figure 2.3 Malaysia Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index 10 Figure 2.4 Fluctuations of World Crude Oil Prices and Malaysia Output 13 Figure 2.5 Changes of Malaysia Revenue, Subsidies and Sales Taxes of 15
Oil
Figure 2.6 De Facto Exchange Rate Analysis 18
Figure 5.1 Responses to Oil Price Shocks 58
Figure 5.2 Flexible Period: Responses to Positive and Negative Oil Price 61 Shocks
Figure 5.3 Fixed Period: Responses to Positive and Negative Oil Price 62 Shocks
Rgure 5.4 Responses to Oil Price Shocks 68
Figure 5.5 Flexible Period: Responses to Positive and Negative Oil Pri~e
69
Shocks
Figure 5.6 Fixed Period: Responses to Positive and Negative Oil Price 70 Shocks
Figure C.1 Changes of Real Oil Prices
99
viii
LIST OF TABLES
PAGES Table 2.1 Malaysia Production and Exports of Crude Oil 9 Table 2.2 Changes of Producer Price Indicator and Consumer Price 12
Indicator
Table 2.3 Overnight Policy Rate 16
Table 2.4 De Jure Exchange Rate Analysis 16
Table 5.1 Unit Root Tests 55
Table 5.2 Johansen Cointegration Tests 56
Table 5.3 F -statistics of Granger Causality Tests 57 Table 5.4 Variance Decompositions of Domestic Variables 64
Table 5.5 Unit Root Tests 66
Table 5.6 Johansen Cointegration Tests 67
Table 5.7 F - statistics of Granger Causality Tests 67 Table 5.8 Variance Decompositions of Domestic Variables 71 Table 6.1 Exports of Crude Oil by Major Countries (Percent) 78 Table 6.2 Imports of Crude Oil by Major Countries (Percent) 79
Table C.l Data from January 1980 to June 2005 92
Table 0.1 Johansen COintegration Test of oil, y, rer, p 100 Table 0.2 Johansen Cointegration Test of oil, y, reer, p 103 Table 0.3 F - statistics of Granger Causality Test of oil, y, rer, p 106 Table 0.4 F - statistics of Granger Causality Test of oil, y, reer, p 108 Table 0.5 Flexible: Variance Decompositions of oil, y., rer, p 110 Table 0.6 Fixed: Variance Decompositions of oil, y, rer, p 113 Table 0.7 Flexible: Variance Decompositions of oil, y, reer, p 116 Table 0.8 Fixed: Variance Decompositions of oil, y, reer, p 119
ix
Endogenous Exogenous Fixed rate regime Flexible rate regime
Globalization
Impulse responses Managed float system
Matrix algebra
GLOSSARY
Variables with values determined inside the model.
Variables with value that is not explained within the model.
A system in which a country maintains a fixed value of its currency in terms of other currencies.
Rates that are completely free to vary; that is, the foreign exchange market is cleared at all times by changes in the exchange rate.
The growing economic interdependence of countries worldwide through increasing volume and variety of cross- border transactions in goods and services, free of international capital flows and more rapid and widespread diffusion of technology.
Trace out the pattern of response of current and future values of each of the variables to one unit increase in the current value of one VAR error terms.
A system with some intervention in foreign exchange market by monetary authorities with exchange rate movements to smooth out short run fluctuations without keeping exchange rates rigidly fixed.
Provides a compact method than scalar algebra in handling regression models.
Moving average Linear combination of white noise error terms.
Oil price shocks An unexpected disturbance or unexplained movements in oil prices, reflecting the influence by exogenous factors.
Price stickiness The tendency of prices to adjust only slowly to changes in the economy.
Structural VAR Combine statistical methodology of basic VARs with a model number of widely accepted long run restrictions derived from economic theory to recover the underlying economic shocks.
Variance decom position West Texas Intermediate
Percentage of the variance of the error made in forecasting a variable due to a specific shock in a given horizon.
One of the leading benchmark of high quality crude oil prices which is referred in the United States and the world.
x
KEYWORDS
Exchange rate regimes, Oil price shocks, Macroeconomic variables, Structural VAR model, Malaysia.
xi
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Introduction
The world has started to globalize since the cross border flows of trade has started around 1870s (World Bank, 2005) and economists have been long aware of this global economy trade since the Ricardian theory in 1880s. The realization of the flexible exchange rate regime in insulating the economies against foreign shocks in the early 1950s by Friedman (1953) encouraged the development of floating exchange rate system since early of 1970s. 1
Nowadays, markets for merchandise are much more integrated than ever before. Many developing countries have broken into the world markets for manufactured goods and services since 1980s (World Bank, 2005). This increasing of economic interdependence through the cross border flows of trade and financial can further support through simple proxies as shows in Figure 1.1 and 1.2. Figure 1.1a and 1.1b indicate the index of the openness for goods and services market has increased markedly for many countries especially in the case of Malaysia since 1970s.2 Figure 1.2a and 1.2b show a strong growth in the foreign direct investment (FDI), as proxied by the share of FDI stocks to output.3 This is further supported by
1 The terms "floating" and "flexible" is used interchangeably.
2The common indicator use to measure the degree of an economy's openness is the percentage of total trade as a share of national income.
3 According to Prasad et al. (2003: 12), stock data is a better indication of capital market integration since it is accumUlation of capital flows through relevant valuation adjustments.
1
Figure 1.1: Trade and Share of Trade to GDP Figure 1.la: World
14,000 .---~250
... 12,000
~ c
=
10,0000 III
;:) 8,000
'-"
~ 0 Q, 6,000 o Export Lett Scale
E • Import ~
....
- Share of Trade to GOP~ 4,000
0 Right Scale
Q, !
~ 2,000
a JlI.JJI.1.ILl.I.Ja
Year
Figure 1.1b: Malaysia
...
o 200 ~
D. Q
~
150 .B
~ CII
100 ~
'l;
!!
50 ~ III
a
600,000 .---~ 250
... c
~ 500,000
i
~ 400,000
....,
~ 8,300,000
....
E~200,000
~
8-
100,000a
lI'I lI'I 01 ....
Source: IMF
o Exports
• Imports
- Share of Trade to GOP
0
'"
0 lI'I 0\0 \0 r-. r-. co
01 .... 01 .... 01 .... 01 .... 01 ....
Year
'"
0 Inco g: 01
01 01
.... .... ....
0 0 0 N
... o
200 ~
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~
150.B
~ CII
100
~
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o
Prasad et. al. (2003: 15), who indicated that the financial restriction has decreased as financial openness has increased in both industrial and developing countries since 1970s.
The factual discussed above shows the cross border trade and capital flows are increasing, which leaves many nations more vulnerable to unexpected international economic shocks. The monitor of the international economic development therefore become crucially important since an economy with relatively
2
Figure 1.2: FDI and Share of FDI to GDP Figure lo2a: World
16,000 100
14,000 ...
... c 80
~ 12,000 ..., ~ 0
iii D.
Left Scale C
*
10,000 60 CJIII D FDI Inward Stocks ! .2
;:) 8,000
...,
• FDI Outward Stocks
....
~ u C
6,000 - Share of FOI to GOP 40 II.
.2 ~
(II
....
4,000 ~C Right Scale 20 .c III
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0 0
0 N
.,.
\0 00 0 N ~ \0 00 0 N i!i00 00 00 00 00 (JI (JI (JI
$ 0 0
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... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
N N NYear
Figure lo2b: Malaysia
60 100
... SO ...
c 80 ~
~ Left Scale 0 ...,
l
D.iD 40 D FDI Inward Stocks C
* III ;:) 30 • FOI Outwars Stocks 60 CJ
.s
-
- Share of FOI to GOP....
~ c
40 II.
U "0
~
20 RlghtScale+ ~
....
IIIC 10 20 .c
II. III
0 0
0 N 1li \D 00 0 N ~ \D 00 0 N i!i
co co co 00 (JI 0\ (JI (JI 0 0
(JI (JI (JI 0'1 0\ (JI 0\ 0\ (JI (JI 0 0 0
... ... ... ...
""'...
""'... ... ...
N N NYear
Sources: IMF and UNCfAD
high degree of openness likes Malaysia will be affected more by outside world. As an alternative, the understanding of flexible exchange rates as a tool to mitigate the foreign shocks can help nations to react better to the international economic development, as predicted by Friedman's (1953) hypothesis.
3
1.2 Statement of Problem
Malaysia is a small, trade dependent economy with a high degree of foreign presence in both the real and financial sectors. International economic development thus has a significant impact on Malaysian economy. Unexpected change originating abroad from time to time can transmit and affect on the macroeconomic performance, which can be measure by Malaysian macroeconomic variables. On the international context, the direction on the oil prices is a major concern. The changes of international oil prices are uncertainty, for example, there is a slightly declining trend of the oil prices in the late of 2006 by easing political concerns and no expected hurricane season in the United States, instead of continuing increase of price of oil in the early 2000s until a peak in July 2006.
Since oil price shocks have a impact on domestic macroeconomic variables, the role of exchange rate regimes in mitigating the impact of these oil price shocks on domestic macroeconomic variables therefore become an interesting issue. This study will investigate the adjustment process of domestic macroeconomic variables in order to test the effectiveness of flexible exchange rates in insulating the Malaysia macroeconomic variables from oil price shocks.
1.3 Research Questions
The research questions for this study are stated as follows:
1. Is the long run relationship existed between oil price shocks and domestic macroeconomic variables?
2. Is the oil price shock exogenous within a set of domestic macroeconomic variables?
3. What is the response pattern of each domestic macroeconomic variable to oil price shocks under alternative exchange rate regimes?
4
4. Is the response pattern of domestic macroeconomic variables the same to the oil price increases as to the oil price decreases?
5. How importance is the oil price shocks in explaining the overall variance of domestic macroeconomic variables?
1.4 Objectives of Study
The purposes for this study are stated as follows:
1. To examine the cOintegration and exogeneoty of oil prices with domestic macroeconomic variables.
2. To analyze the insulating properties of floating exchange rate regime against fixed exchange rate regime from the oil price shocks. ExpliCitly, the adjustment process of exchange rates, price level and output in response to the oil price shocks is compared under different exchange rate regimes.
3. To analyze the asymmetric effect of the positive and negative oil price shocks on exchange rates, price level and output within and across the exchange rate regimes.
4. To measure the relative importance of the oil price shocks in explaining the overall variance of exchange rates, price level and output.
1.S Significance of Study
Different exchange rate regimes have advantages and disadvantages. For example, fixed rate regime can reduce exchange rate volatility and stimulating trade, investment and growth. While economic with floating rate regime has greater ability to adjust to external shocks. This study intends to contribute as a guideline on the effects of the foreign shocks, or unexpected change originating abroad, on the domestic economies under different exchange rate regimes through statistical
5
analysis. An understanding of the insulating properties of exchange rate from foreign disturbances to domestic economies can help the policymakers and investors to monitor international conditions in order to properly react to these undesirable foreign disturbances.
Past studies examined on this issue focused on terms of trade shocks, natural shocks and foreign macroeconomic variables shocks such as output, interest rate, price level and money supply shocks (Lastrapes and Koray, 1990; Hutchison and Walsh, 1992; Broda, 2004; Edwards and Levy Yeyati, 2005; and Ramcharan, 2005).
On the other hand, studies examine on the relationship between oil price shocks and output did not include the role of the exchange rate (Hamilton, 1983; Mork, 1989;
Mork, Olsen and Mysen, 1994, Hooker, 1996; Lee, Ni and Ratti, 1995; Ferderer, 1996; and Guo and Kliesen, 2005). This study fill such a gap in current literature as it focuses on the adjustment process of domestic macroeconomic variables in responses to the oil price disturbances under different exchange rate regimes in Malaysia.
1.6 Scope of Study
Instead of asking whether the economic poliCies such as monetary policy, fiscal policy or trade policy can help to stabilize the' output, the study examines if fixed or floating exchange rates can help to achieve this objective. Study is concerned with 'normal times' but not focuses on speCial economic events since there are many interesting economic variations besides these events. And the study is conducted from 1980 to 2005 for Malaysia.
6
1.7 Organization of Study
The remainder of the study arrange as follows. Chapter two describes background of this issue in the case of Malaysia. The following chapter reviews the Friedman's (1953) theory and some related literature. Chapter four outlines the econometric framework employs in this study. Chapter five reports the empirical results. And the final chapter provides a summary and implications of the study's findings besides discusses some limitations and suggestions for future study.
7
CHAPTER 2
BACKGROUND OF STUDY
2.1 Introduction
Chapter two briefly reviews the important of the international world crude oil prices in influencing Malaysian economy and the development of exchange rate regimes in Malaysia.
2.2 Malaysia as a Price Taker of Crude Oil
Malaysia is a crude oil producer and a net exporter country of crude oil. Since the consumption of the crude oil is less than the production capacity in Malaysia as shows in Figure 2.1, Malaysia is exporting the crude oil. At the same time, Malaysia also importing crude oil for consumption as Malaysia can earn more from the higher quality of produced and exported crude oil, namely Tapis. Figure 2.1 indicates that the gap for the volume of exports against imports, and the production compare with consumption of crude oil become smaller over 1990 to 2004. This is further proven through Table 2.1, which shows the share of crude oil production to gross domestic product (GDP) and percentage exports of crude oil to total exports in Malaysia indicates a declining trend. Moreover, the share of the crude oil production in Malaysia to the world crude oil production is less than 2%. Therefore, Malaysia is a crude oil price taker from international crude oil market since Malaysia is a small oil producer country as compare with the world crude oil production.
8
Figure 2.1: Malaysia Production, Consumption, Exports and Imports of Crude Oil
50,000 800
45,000 700
... 1/1 40,000 >-
Right Scale III
GI 600 Q
c 35,000 CJExport
...
c 0 _Import - -..
-
500 GI a.I-c 30,000 - Production
---
- -Consumption .,*"---_ .. - Qj
~ 25,000 ,,-
"
400 I: IIIi Left Scale CD
....,
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°
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0 0Cl'I Cl'I
'" '" '"
0 0 0... ... ... ... ... N N N
Year
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and EIA
Table 2.1: Malaysia Production and Exports of Crude Oil
Percentage Percentage
Year PG EE PP Year PG EE PP
1991 8.98 10.79 1.07 1998 7.88 2.63 1.08
1992 8.63 8.80 1.09 1999 7.93 2.89 1.05
1993 7.54 6.54 1.06 2000 7.31 3.82 1.01
1994 7.32 4.25 1.06 2001 7.18 3.34 0.97
1995 8.19 3.62 1.09 2002 7.17 3.25 1.04
1996 7.66 3.66 1.09 2003 7.20 3.94 1.07
1997 7.27 3.20 1.07 2004 6.98 4.53 1.05
Sources: Department of Statistics, Malaysia; Ministry of Finance, Malaysia; and EIA Note: PG: Share of Malaysia crude oil production to Malaysia GDP
EE: Share of Malaysia crude oil export to Malaysia total export
PP: Share of Malaysia crude oil production to world crude oil production
2.3 Impact of Changes of Oil Prices on Malaysia
Oil is a primary commodity for the world economy - as a raw material in manufacturing industries and is a source of transport fuel. It therefore has an inelastic demand in the short term, in which a slightly drop in crude oil supply will result in large hikes in the international oil prices.
9
Figure 2.2: Prices of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Figure 2.2a: World Prices of Crude Oil
80.---, 70
60 SO 40 30 20 10 0
0 ~
C7\ C7\
C7\ C7\
... ...
N M
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C7\ C7\ C7\ C7\ 0 0 0 0 0 0 C7\ C7\ C7\ C7\ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
... ...
...
N N N N N N NYear
Figure 2.2b: Malaysia Retail Prices of Petroleum Products
2.0 - , - - - -- - -- - - - ,
- Petrol Premium (RM/litre)
June 2006- - - Petrol Regular (RM/litre)
- -Diesel (RM/litre) 1.5 - LPG (RM/kg)
crT- - .
1.0
.r·
.-,"
-
~---~----~-- 0.5
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...
N M V LrI <D "- co 0'1 0 .... N M (!; ILl <D0'1 0'1 0'1 0'1 0'1 0'1 0'1 0'1 0'1 0'1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0'1 0'1 0'1 0'1 0'1 0'1 ~ 0'1 0'1 0'1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
... ... ...
.... ....... ... ... ...
N N N N N N NYear
Source: IMF and Ministry of Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Figure 2.3: Malaysia Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index
140
...., 120
CI 0 .-4 II 100
0 0
CI 80
...
N~ 60
'a C
....
8 40
·c II.
20 - Producer Price Index - -Consumer Price Index
a
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...
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....
... ...
....... ... ...
.... N N N N N N NYear
Source: IMF
10
.J ,- - t:
~
IE
::5 ;3
2.3.1 Changes of Oil Prices and Inflation Rate
The continuing increase of the world crude oil prices or West Texas Intermediate, WIT, as shows in Figure 2.2a has increased the retail prices of petroleum products in Malaysia more frequent in 2000s when compare to 1990s, as shows in Figure 2.2b.
The international crude oil prices has increased about 232%, while the prices of RON97, RON92, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas in Malaysia have increased about 70%, 77%, 143% and 48% respectively in June 2006 compare with January 1990.
The percentage increase of price of oil is smaller in Malaysia than in the world since the government has controlled these retail prices through subsidy and sales tax exemption. In another case, fuel which is one of the major sources in electric supplying sector had reviewed since 1 June 2006, in which this tariff was last reviewed in 1997 (Tenaga Nasional Berhad, 2004). An upward revision of electricity tariffs would affect the inflation.
The rapid increment of the fuel prices cause inflation indirectly, which can be represented by producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI). Figure 2.3 shows that the increment of the fuel prices increases the PPI more rapidly against CPI especially when the PPI can use to predict CPI. These inflation rates in 2000s are accelerated mostly on account of the rising retail prices for fuel products since oil is an important material in production and transportation. Table 2.2 shows the rapid increment of PPI and CPI is mainly cause by changes in the price of crude materials, mineral fuel, lubricants and related materials and transportation and communication.
2.3.2 Changes of Oil Prices and Output Growth
Table and Figure 2.1 show that the share of crude oil production to GDP has decreased, consistent with the gap of production and consumption of crude oil has become smaller over 1991 over 2004. However, the increment of international crude
11
REFERENCES
Abeysinghe, T. 2001. Estimation of Direct and Indirect Impact of Oil Price on Growth.
Economics Letters. 73(2): 147-153.
Baxter, M. and Stockman, A. C. 1989. Business Cycles and the Exchange-Rate Regime: Some International Evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics. 23(3):
377-400.
Bayoumi, T. and Eichengreen, B. 1994. Macroeconomic Adjustment under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton-Woods Float: An Impulse-Response Analysis. The Economic Journal. 104(425): 813-827.
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