APEC Energy Balances
Workshop on Energy Statistics and Energy Balance
Berjaya Times Square Hotel Kuala Lumpur 5 December 2011 E. Barcelona EDMMC/IEEJ
Outline
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The APEC Energy Database
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The APEC Energy Balances
z Description
z Differences with Malaysian national energy balance
z Data Collection
z Processing
z Review
z Analysis
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Differences with National Energy Balances
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Why are Energy Balances Important?
The APEC Energy Database
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http://www.ieej.or.jp/egeda/
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Open to the public
z Annual energy balances and statistics of 21 APEC member economies from 1980 (for most economies)
z Quarterly energy supply data from 1994 of most of the 21 APEC member economies
z Monthly Oil (JODI Oil) and natural gas (JODI Gas) from 2001 for all APEC economies
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For members only
z Annual CO2 emissions for all the 21 APEC economies
z Socio‐economic statistics for all 21 member economies
z Energy related statistics
The APEC Energy Database
Description of the APEC Energy Balances
z Primary energy supply
z Indigenous production, imports and exports, international marine and aviation bunkers, stock changes
z Transformation
z Oil refining
z Electricity and heat generation
z Coal transformation
z Gas processing
z Others
z Energy sector use and losses
z Energy sector consumption and losses
z Final energy consumption
z Energy consumption by industry, transportation, residential, commercial and other sectors (industry further broken down into major branches)
z Non‐energy consumption
Differences of APEC Energy Balances and Malaysian National Energy Balance
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Conversion of primary electricity
z APEC methodology assumes 100% efficiency of hydro, wind and solar electricity generation
z Malaysia uses the average efficiency of thermal power plants which could vary every year
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Indigenous Production
z Indigenous production in APEC definition is the marketable production that is:
z For crude oil and coal, after removal of impurities
z For natural gas, excludes gas vented re‐injected and flared
z In Malaysia, gas flared and re‐injected are included; for crude oil, there is huge statistical discrepancy in the primary supply (is this because production is wellhead production?)
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No other major difference
Collection of Data for APEC Energy Balances
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Collected in 5 annual questionnaires since the collection of 2004 data (2006)
z Coal – kilotons for solid and 1010 kilocalories for coal gases
z Oil – kilotons for all products
z natural gas – million cubic meters, kilotons for LNG
z electricity and heat – GWh for electricity and 1010 kilocalories for heat
z new and renewable energy ‐ kilotons for solid and liquid products and 1010 kilocalories for biogases
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Calorific values or energy content per unit of mass or
volume are also collected for the conversion of physical
units to energy units
Processing of Annual Energy Supply Demand Data
z Upon receipt of the annual questionnaires, the statistical
discrepancies are checked. If these are large (greater than 5%), contacts in member economies are notified by email and asked for possible revisions
z Completeness and consistency are also checked referring to previous years’ energy balances
z Check for missing flows, missing products and calorific values
z Efficiency of electricity generation is checked as well as transformation losses or gains
z The 5 questionnaires are then processed into energy balance tables
z For countries, without official data, CO2 emissions are calculated using the sectoral approach
Review of Energy Balances
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Growth rates of TPES and TFEC and all other flows
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Transformation gains and losses
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Thermal efficiencies
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Statistical discrepancies
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Completeness
Data Analysis Using the APEC Energy Balances
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Check on the completeness of the data
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High‐level check on the data accuracy as apparent gains in conversion processes or large losses indicate data problems. Allows the user to see the fuel
conversion efficiencies
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A natural starting point for the construction of various indicators of energy consumption
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Measure for the degree of dependency of the country to each kind of energy.
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Analysis of environmental impact of the energy use
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Starting point for energy modeling
Analysis of EBT
Check for Completeness and Accuracy of Data
Analysis of EBT
Check for Conversion Efficiency
Analysis of EBT
Basis for Energy Indicator Analysis
Divide this number with GDP, you get Energy Intensity
Divide this number with population, you get per Capita
Final Energy Consumption
Divide by steel production, you get Energy Consumption per unit of steel output
Energy Indicator Analysis
Final Energy Consumption of Selected Countries
Energy Indicator Analysis
Final Energy Consumption vs. GDP per Capita
Energy Indicator Analysis
Electricity Consumption per Capita
Energy Indicator Analysis
Residential Electricity Consumption per Capita
Energy Indicator Analysis
Road Transport Consumption per Capita
Energy Indicator Analysis
Energy Consumption in Iron & Steel Production
Energy Indicator Analysis
Energy Consumption in Iron & Steel Production
Analysis of EBT
Reveals Degree of Energy Dependency
Coal Dependence:
2,947/29282 = 10.1%
Oil Dependence:
12,248/29,282 = 41.8%
Self Sufficiency Level:
9,310/29,282 = 31.8%
Analysis of EBT
Basis for Analysis of Environmental Impact of Energy Use
CO2 emission can be calculated from the above data using emission factors.
OIL AND OIL PRODUCTS t C/TJ COAL AND COAL PRODUCTSt C/TJ
Crude Oil 20.0 Anthracite 26.8
Orimulsion 22.0 Coking Coal 25.8
Natural Gas Liquids 17.2 Other Bituminous Coal 25.8
Gasoline 18.9 Sub-bituminous Coal 26.2
Jet Kerosene 19.5 Lignite 27.6
Other Kerosene 19.6 Oil Shale 29.1
Shale Oil 20.0 Peat 28.9
Gas/Diesel Oil 20.2 Coal Briquettes 25.8
Residual Fuel Oil 21.1 Coke Oven/Gas Coke 29.5
LPG 17.2 Coke Oven Gas 13.0
Ethane 16.8 Blast Furnace Gas 66.0
Naptha 20.0 NATURAL GAS
Bitumen 22.0 Natural Gas (Dry) 15.3
Lubricants 20.0 BIOMASS
Petroleum Coke 27.5 Solid Biomass 29.9
Refinery Feedstocks 20.0 Liquid Biomass 20.0
Refinery Gas 18.2 Gas Biomass 30.6
Other Oil 20.0
Sources: IPCC, IEA
z This EBT gives an idea that electricity demand would be supplied by coal, oil, natural gas, hydro and other electricity sources. It also has some electricity imports
z It also gives information on the fuel needed to produce the required electricity (fuel inputs and electricity output indicate thermal efficiency of each type of power plants)
z It also gives an idea on how the country’s refinery will produce the petroleum products needed by the consumers
z The EBT also gives an idea how the country will meet its primary energy requirements (production or importation)
Analysis of EBT
Starting Point for Energy Modeling
z Many energy models are demand‐driven; i.e.: solutions are sought to meet projected demand
z Modeling starts with projection of final energy consumption
z How then would demand be met?
z The EBT gives some information on how demand would be supplied.
z Electricity
z Petroleum products
z Coal products
z Etc.
Differences with National Energy Balances
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Uses the net calorific value (NCV) of each energy product –NCV excludes the wasted heat during combustion of the fuel
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The unit used in the APEC energy balances is in energy unit, ktoe or thousand tons of oil equivalent, which is equal to 10
10kilocalories
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The APEC Energy Balance has 70 columns and 78 rows
z More columns for a variety of products
z More transformation rows
z More or less final consumption rows
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Statistical Difference is the difference between supply
and demand and is not subtracted or added to the TPES
Why are Energy Balances Important?
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Provides basic data for energy policy formulation
z Supply policies
z Demand policies
z Security policies
z Energy efficiency policies
z Environmental protection policies
z Climate change mitigation policies
z Incentive/subsidy policies
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Measuring efficiency of utilization
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Measuring public welfare
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Can be used in setting various benchmarks
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Can be used to model the future energy situation